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<br />Impacts of Developing Water Supplies for Emerging Energy Technologies <br /> <br />~ Developing water supplies for EETs may be expected to have a variety <br />-J of economic, social, and ecological impacts. Furthermore, the impacts will <br />~ vary from one means of supply to the next (e.g., surface water and ground <br />~) water development may be expected to lead to different sets of impacts). <br />The likely impacts are discussed below and are set.in the context of <br />the economic and social conditions to which EET development in general <br />may give rise. <br /> <br />An Overview of .Potential Economic and Social Conditions. The effect <br />which future growth would have upon the economy of the Upper Basin is <br />perhaps best measured by the personal income which would accrue to the <br />residents of the region. This has been estimated, through the use of an <br />input-output model, in terms of the total gross output of the household <br />sector. Even without EETdeve1opment, projected increases in exports <br />of coal and electricity, among others, suggest that the compound annual <br />rate of growth in personal income for the Upper Basin from 1975 through <br />2000 would be 3.9 percent. At the subregional level, growth is projected <br />at an even more rapid pace, equaling about 4.7 percent per year (compounded) <br />in one area. <br /> <br />... <br /> <br />In general, EET developments would add a substantial increment to <br />these already large compound growth rates in personal income. For <br />example, the 1.5 million barrels per. day of oil (equivalents) synfuel <br />industry discussed earlier would add anywhere from 1.5 to 3 percentage <br />points (depending on the particular tupe of oil shale technologies <br />employed) to the 3.9 percent compound annual growth rate. projected to <br />occur without EET development. A 3 million barrel per day synfuels <br />industry would add even more to this 3.9. percent rate of growth-~ <br />from 2 to 4 percentage points, again depending upon the type of oil <br />shale technologies employed. <br /> <br />Since these rates'Tepresent averages over the period 1975-2000, <br />it could be. expected that considerably higher rates would occur over <br />some shorter time intervals. Furthermore, these rates reflect none of <br />the short-term growth associated with the construction-phase activities <br />that would attend the development of the postulated EETs. Finally, one <br />must also realize that the projected growth, although depicted as being <br />applicable to the entire Upper Basin, would actually be concentrated in <br />only half a dozen Upper Basin counties. In short, the economic activity <br />and structure of the Upper Basin, and especially of a few counties there- <br />in, would be massively affected by the development of the postulated EETs. <br /> <br />With respect to future social conditions in the Upper Basin, these <br />wou1d,in the first instance, be directly influenced by population growth. <br />To gain acmotion of the possible magnitude of these population increases, <br />one can assume that the ratio of total current (1975) population to the <br />income of the household sectou in 1975 woul~ be the same in the future. <br />Under these circumstances, the rates discussed in the above paragraph <br />for the growth of personal income become projections of the rates of <br />population growth. <br /> <br />For example, population growth even without EETdevelopment would <br />occur at'a compound rate of 3.9 percent per year since the projected <br />rate of growth in personal income is 3.9 percent. This translates into <br /> <br />c~ii <br />