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. " . 5-WRW washn xxx development NUcLEAR: Projections of rapid increases in nuclear power genera- tion have never proved out. Despite announced starts of dozens of nuc- lear plants in this country particularly in the late 1960's, nuclear power generation totalldd only 21 million kilowatts in this country in 1973. At the end of 1973 the nation's total electric utility generating capacity was 432 million kilowatts. BUt nuclear generation in the past five years has increased from 1 to 4.5 percent of total capacity, and it is projected by the PEA report on Project Independence to be 30 per- cent of total capacity by 1985. If nuclear plant construction moved a- head on an accelerated basis, "nuclear fuel production and uranium en- richment would have to more than double from 1980 to 1985." High front- load costs of nuclear plants have deferred construction of some plants. Public concern about nuclear safety, nuclear waste disposal and leakage, sabotage, thermal effluents, regulatory constraints, site availability, construction delays and operating problems are slowing nuclear plants now in the construction stage, so that few new nuclear plants will be- come operational before the early 1980's. But a lot of new nuclear gen- erating plants are expected to go on the line between 1980-1985. SYNTHETIC FUELS: No conunercial synthetic fuels plants are current- ly in operation or under construction in the united States no~, and it is questionable whether such a plant will be in operation in 1985. If the government subsidized the construction of such plants, synthetic li- quid fuel production would not be more than 500,000 barrels per day, and synthetic high BTO gas production would not be more than 1 trillion cu- bid feet per year by 1985. New technology is only in the pilot plant stage in this country, and high costs 'will limit the gro\~h of synthet- ic liquid production (of fuels) in the United States...The real potenti= al for synthetic fuels will not be realized until the late 1980's or early 1990's." OIL SH1\LE: No commercial shale oil plants are currently operating in this country, and COLONY's plan to bUild a commercial-sized plant in Western Colorado was recently shelved because of inflationary pressures on projected costs. If oil remains at $11 a barrel, it is possible that shale oil production could equal 1 million barrels per day by 1985. High costs and environmental constraints will limit the development of this new source of energy for commercial use. GEOTHERMAL AND SOIJ\.R ENERGY: "Full-scale utilization of geothermal energy will not take place until after the 1990' s," and no large amount of solar energy or wind energy will be harnessed for commercial use eith= ~= by 1985. Solar heating and cooling and wind electric systems are al- ready going into commercial use on an isolated home-owner basis. Geo- ~~~nt is dependent on federal land leases and more R&D.HCM George M. Kaydas of the Columbia Fisheries Office; National Marine Fisheries service, Portland, has informed us that the proper name is li.f:):lwa~ rather than fish bypasses for the "ladders" be~g bUilt n~ to pe!:':nit anadromous fish to return from the ocean to the r~ver of thelX bi~th to spawn. We are delighted to make the correction, on Page 5 of Wf:,l, Series X, No. 43, dated 10-211-74. HeM-30-HCM 0115