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<br />PART VIII. EFFECl'S OF DEVELQPMElIT ON SALINITY <br /> <br />...... <br />en <br />~. <br />"..' <br />C) <br /> <br />A. <br /> <br />Methods <br /> <br />An evaluation of the probable effects of developments on the flows and <br />water quality of the Colorado River Basin was made using a computer model. <br />The model, Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS), evaluates the impacts of <br />depletions, salt pickup, and salinity control on future salinity at key <br />stations within the basin. <br /> <br />CRSS is a package of computer programs and data bases developed by <br />Reclamation as a tool to be used by water resource managers dealing with <br />water-related issues and problems in the Colorado River Basin. The Colorado <br />River Simulation Model (CRSM), the central feature to the CRSS, is a computer <br />program which simulates the flow of salt and water through the Colorado River <br />system. <br /> <br />The model simulates operation of the river system on a monthly time <br />frame, using historical (virgin) flow records, present and future depletion <br />schedules, present and future levels of salinity control (optionally), and <br />present and future salt loading estimates to predict salinity throughout the <br />Basin. Salts and water are routed through the system by a simple mass balance <br />accounting procedure in ~TIich salinity is modeled as a conservative parameter. <br />Irrigation and transbasin diversions show salt gains and losses, respectively; <br />other uses (municipal, industrial, evaporation, mineral, etc.), with the <br />exception of the Las Vegas wash, show no gains in loading due to salt pickup. <br /> <br />Among the assumptions used is CRSS salinity projections is the routing of <br />salts through a given reservoir. The model routes the salts through the main <br />stem reservoirs using a once-a-month mixing algorithm. This assumption limits <br />the ability of the model to predict monthly variations in salinity; however, <br />it does not limit the model in predicting long-term salinity since the monthly <br />differences average out on a yearly basis. <br /> <br />A simulation of historical conditions within the basin was used to test <br />the ability of the CRSS to simulate flows and salinity. The results of the <br />test were then used to calibrate the model. Gains and losses between stations <br />along the Colorado were adjusted to minimize the error between simulated and <br />observed salinity concentration. The development and use of CRSS is an <br />ongoing process; however, results from the model have been favorably compared <br />against the 1968-78 historical conditions, and Reclamation believes that in <br />its present form, CRSS is the best long-range predicitive tool available. <br /> <br />B. Initial Salinity Conditions <br /> <br />For these simulations, Table VI-l summarizes the estimated present and <br />projected future development used in CRSS through the year 2010 for the Upper <br />Basin and the Lower Colorado mainstream of the Colorado River. The virgin <br />flow data base used included monthly flow data for 1906-83. The mean virgin <br />flow for this period was 15 million acre-feet per year at Lees Ferry. <br /> <br />VIII-1 <br /> <br />- <br />