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<br />modified by depletions). In the second sequence, the water supply for <br />the starting year of 1976 was assumed to be equal to that of the year <br />1911 (as modified by depletions). The other sequences were run similarly, <br />using 5-year intervals to determine the water supply for the starting <br />year of 1976 until in the thirteenth sequence, the water supply for <br />1976 was assumed equal to that of 1966 (as modified by depletion). The <br />averages of the thirteen sequences for each season of each future year <br />were then plotted on a graph. A smooth curve was drawn through the <br />midpoints of the graph, which then was construed to represent the effect <br />of running 67 sequences with the starting year of 1976 being equated <br />successively to each year of the 1906-72 period, and was construed to <br />represent a reasonable estimate of the future average generation per <br />season. <br /> <br />Figure E-7 shows the historical flow at Lee Ferry, Arizona, for the <br />period 1896 through 1972. It will be noted from this that, in the 11 <br />years since start of generation by the CRSP powerplants (water year <br />1964) there have been 3 years of flow above, and one year equal to, the <br />long-time average. <br /> <br />b. Pro;ect energy. Table E-7 is a tabulation showing the CRSP <br />energy generation, project use, commercial sales, and purchases for the <br />years 1975 through 2059. All the quantities are "at load" and are based <br />on the assumption that energy transmission losses will be 7 percent of <br />the load. The fiscal year 1975 data are based on actual records for the <br />period of July 1974 through April 1975 and estimates for May and June <br />1975. For the years thereafter, the energy generation was estimated by <br />summer and winter seasons, using the method heretofore described. <br /> <br />The estimated future requirements for project use were then subtracted. <br />For the period between fiscal year 1976 and the end of fiscal year 1986, <br />when most of the present contracts expire, the remaining amounts were <br />then compared to the firm sales (the contractual MW under contract times <br />2550 hours for each season). <br /> <br />If the aforementioned amounts exceed the firm sales, the energy left <br />over is assumed to be sold as nonfirm energy. If the amounts are less <br />than the firm sales, the energy deficit is assumed to be made up by <br />purchases. It will be noted from Table E-7 that, for the fiscal years <br />1976 through 1986, it is expected that there will be nonfirm sales in <br />the summer season and that purchases will be necessary in the winter <br />season. It has been assumed that the new contracts for the years after <br />fiscal year 1986 will be made in such a way that all the energy over and <br />above project uses can be sold as firm energy. The project pumping use <br />is expected to increase from 1 GliH in fiscal year 1975 to 126 GWH in <br />fiscal year 1990. The pumping use includes requirements for salinity <br />control and requirements of the participating projects excluding Bon- <br />neville Unit (CUP) pumping and the amount of Navajo Indian Irrigation <br />Project pumping which is served out of the Navajo Dam Powerplant. These <br />pumping requirements have been netted out of the generation. An estimated <br /> <br />26 <br />