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<br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />U d ; <br />.,r . <br />,",.1;) <br /> <br />Basic Estimates of the 1972 Plan <br /> <br />Reservoir Inflow <br /> <br />Ruedi Reservoir <br /> <br />Inflow to Ruedi Reservoir was considered to be the historic flow of the Fryingpan <br />River at Ruedi, Colo. Records are available at this station for October 1959 <br />through September 1964. No correction was made for Busk-Ivanhoe diversions <br />above the gage as these diversions should be of the same pattern and magnitude <br />during the runoff season for which discharge is being predicted. For Water Years <br />1965 through May 1968, discharge at the gaging station on the Fryingpan River <br />near Ruedi, Colo., was corrected for Rocky Fork flow and used as Fryingpan <br />River flow at Ruedi, Colo. Rocky Fork flow was estimated from spot measure- <br />ments. After May 1968, when storage began at Ruedi Reservoir, the actual in- <br />flow computed from measured outflow and change in storage was used. <br /> <br />Using historical data, a probability curve for Ruedi inflow was computed by the <br />modified California method and is shown graphically on exhibit 1. Annual inflow <br />of a magnitude equaled or exceeded 50 percent of the time was considered the <br />most probable inflow, that with a 90 percent chance of being equaled or exceeded <br />was considered to be the reasonable minimum, and that with only a 10 percent <br />chance of being equaled or exceeded was considered the reasonable maximum. <br />The October through March inflow was distributed according to the average 1960 <br />through 1970 distribution pattern for this period. After October through March <br />inflow was subtracted, the remainder was distributed between the months of <br />April through September according to the distribution of the mean historical <br />inflow. <br /> <br />Storable inflow was considered to be the inflow less bypass for the protection of <br />recreational values, including fishing on the Fryingpan River below Ruedi Res- <br />ervoir. <br /> <br />Because the collection system may be in operation after May 1, inflow to Ruedi <br />will be reduced by estimated diversions to the Arkansas River Basin, Three <br />points of diversion may be in operation in 1971; Chapman Gulch, South Fork, and <br />the Fryingpan River below Marten Creek. Estimates of these diversions are <br />made using diversion data from the Western Slope Operation Study and probabil- <br />ityanalysis, The 10, 50, and 90 percent chance valucs werc obtained from the <br />probability curve shown on exhibit 2 and are considered to represent the reason- <br />able minimum, most probable, and reasonable maximum three months diver- <br />sions, respectively. <br /> <br />10 <br /> <br />