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<br />~ <br /> <br /><' <br /> <br />with respect to the Lower Basin, system recovery, for <br />the purposes of redistributing excess water releases, centers <br />principally on the total system storage condition for two <br />distinct periods, January to July of the year of the <br />recommended AOP and January 1 of the following operating <br />year. The January to JUly period is important relative to <br />decisions for July through September excess water releases in <br />the prior (current) operating year due to the high degree of <br />uncertainty at that time with respect to water supply <br />forecasts for the coming year. System recovery is viewed as <br />recovering to reservoir storage conditions equal to that <br />which would have occurred under a minimum flood control <br />requirement (Base Case) operation. The measure of recovery <br />is the system's ability to achieve this condition. <br /> <br />To evaluate the potential for system recovery, the 24- <br />month study computer model would measure the sensitivity of <br />the system to achieve a Base Case system storage space <br />between January and July and on January 1 of the following <br />operating year under various probable water supply scenarios <br />so as to define when critical decisions must be made. <br /> <br />The Colorado River Simulation System (eRSS) computer <br />model also provides a convenient means for assessing the <br />long-term impacts of excess water releases on system storage <br />to guard against unforeseen shortcomings associated with the <br />24-month study evaluations. MUltiple-trace runs can be used <br />to determine the probability distribution of the January 1 <br />system space for any year in the future. The relative <br />probability of recovering to a full reservoir condition can <br />be obtained by comparing CRSS runs using various initial <br />conditions, with one representing a Base Case condition. <br />Initial conditions would be derived from 24-month study <br />simulations of varying excess releases. For long-term <br />evaluation, it is anticipated that full reservoir conditions <br />will persist until 1992, when Arizona will be capable of <br />diverting surplus water through the Central Arizona project. <br />Since this process is concerned with the development of AOP's <br />under full reservoir conditions, the long-term evaluation <br />should be limited to the same time period. <br /> <br />3.5 Monitoring and Reassessing the Annual Operating Plan <br /> <br />Central to prudent river system operations are <br />provisions for modifying the plan to reflect changing <br />conditions. Updated information on water supply forecasts, <br />projected beneficial consumptive water use requirements, and <br />other relevant operational information must continuously be <br />integrated into the plan. The 24-month study provides a <br />convenient means for evaluating the impact of chang ing <br />conditions upon short-term operations. Currently, the 24- <br />month study is updated at least monthly and can be updated <br /> <br />-39- <br />