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~ TABLE 5 Estimated Colorado River Comsumptive Water Use Needs in the United States in thousand acre-feet 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Upper Basin Arizona 34 34 40 40 40 Colorado 1918 1918 2129 2131 2133 New Mexico 398 398 552 552 552 Utah 836 849 906 913 919 wyoming 351 351 412 412 412 Lower Basin Arizona 2026 2281 2599 2779 2800 California 4800 4800 4800 4800 4800 Nevada 156 164 178 184 190 3.2.3 Determination of Excess Water. The 24-month study computer model provides a relatively straight-forward procedure for quantifying excess water. The model follows a user-defined Lower Colorado River release schedule unless it is overridden by a mandatory flood control release. The user-defined release pattern is the amount needed to meet beneficial consumptive water use needs in the United States, the minimum Mexican water treaty obligation and associated system losses, then any water released from Lake Mead in excess of this amount will be mandatory flood control release. The numerical difference between the user-defined release pattern and the projected Hoover Dam release required represents the quantity of water which will flow to Mexico in excess of the minimum treaty obligation. This mode of operation will be referred to as the minimum flood control requirement operation or the "Base Case" operation assumption. Table 6 demonstrates this procedure. The estimated user-defined release patterns for the period 1988- 1992 are presented in Table 7. These projections are based on the CRSS demand data base of Colorado River water users. It should be noted that, if the quantity, and probability of occurrence of excess water is sufficient as determined by the United States, then upon notification by the International Boundary and Water Commission, Mexico may schedule up to an additional 200,000 acre-feet for the year. Once scheduled, the additional 200,000 acre-feet of Mexican Water Treaty deliveries are not subject to interruption during the year and become part of the user-defined release pattern in the determination of excess water for that year. -27-