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PROJECTIONS OF CONVENTIONAL 'WATER USES l\) 00 ~. ~ It is evident that conventional water uses ,in the Upper Basin (i.e., uses other than oil shale retorting and coal gasification) will increase between now and the year 2000. These uses, and their anticipat- ed sources of water supply, are discussed below" ~{;r~) Surface Water For the purposes of this assessment, the Upper Basin States have made estimates of a plausible range of potential average annual deple- tions of surface waters under year 2000 conditions of development for all uses other than. oil shale retorting and coal gasification (see tables 4.1, 4.2, and 4.3). Because these three projections do not include estimates of ruture water consumption for the two EETs, they are referred to as the "without EET" scenarios. In turn, low, medium and high designations refer to the magnitude or each scenario's total projected Upper Basin depletions, the low "without EET" scenario having the smallest projected level of future depletions and so on. The reason for using three "without EET" scenarios is to take into account the numerous factors which may affect the rate of future develop- ment and to reflect the uncertainty associated with projecting future depletions. This is particularly true for congressionally authorized irrigation projects, where recent changes in federal policy and the pos- sible lack of funding by Congress may push construction dates back several years. In this context the medium "without EET" scenario represents the States' present estimates of the most probable levels of future develop- ment for conventional consumptive water uses. :;:f~:;3 .,; :;~ In general, the "without EET" scenarios show three major water use trends. First, irrigated agriculture is projected to continue expanding, thereby remaining the dominant user of water. It accounts for just over 60 percent of the total year 2000 depletions in any of the three "without EET" scenarios. ,The second major trend is further increases in exports to areas outside of the Upper Basin, most notably to the Front Range urban corridor in Colorado, to the Rio Grande Basin in New Mexico, and 'to the Bonneville Basin in Utah. These exports would go largely to out-of-basin municipal and industrial uses. The final major trend is the very large percentage increase (300 to 500 percent over present uses) projected for consumption by thermal electric generating facilities. Even with these large percentage increases, however, consumption by thermal electric facilities would still account for only 6 to 7 percent of the total year 2000 depletions in any scenario, .... ;.,:.":} -xxiv