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<br />.. <br /> <br />depletions will be made using the long.term averages since 1975. The CRDSS Colorado <br />River Mainstem Water Right Planning Model will be used, and two model runs will be <br />required. <br /> <br />RUN I. <br />The Cl scenario will be run for the updated study period (e.g., 1975 to year n, where year <br />n would be 2005, 2010, 2015, etc.) at the 1995 level of demand for the entire study <br />period. <br /> <br />RUN 2. <br />A second model run (call it C,) would be made for the same updated study period using <br />year n demand levels over the entire period. Comparing the difference between the long. <br />term averages of the two model runs (Cl & C,) will identifY the increase in depletions over <br />that time period. Model calibration and verification will be done with each update. There <br />are no "cap" amounts identified in this process; the trigger is whether or not the <br />difference between the two model runs exceeds either the 60,000 acre. foot or the <br />120,000 acre.foot levels identified in this Biological Opinion. Also, the criteria to <br />determine positive or negative fish population responses is presented in the reinitiation <br />notice of this biological opinion and in Appendix D. As described in the reinitiation <br />notice, the status of fish populations will be reviewed prior to new depletions reaching <br />60,000 acre-feet/year. This review will begin when actual new depletion levels reach <br />50,000 acre.feet/year or the year 2015, whichever comes first. Therefore, every 5 years it <br />will be determined if new depletions are approaching 50,000 acre. feet/year. <br /> <br />4) A report will be prepared documenting the assumptions used and changes in depletions <br />and other model results. The report will be prepared on a water year basis October I to <br />September 30. The report will also document any changes made to the model such as <br />updated demand information. <br /> <br />5) Reports will be provided on a five year basis. The report covering the period 2001.2005 <br />will be completed by December 31, 2006. The report covering the period 2006-2010 will <br />be completed by December 31, 20 II, The reason for the one year lag is to allow the data <br />for the previous year to be reduced and finalized. <br /> <br />6) This process as currently envisioned has the potential to become labor intensive <br />depending on the number of model changes and degree of "backcasting" involved. Costs <br />or appropriate cost. share arrangements will be worked out during the development of the <br />Recovery Program's annual work plan. A Scope of Work will be prepared for the FY <br />2005 Recovery Program's work planning process to fund the development of the <br />depletion report and model runs, Furthermore, because of cost considerations, the <br />process identified above is subject to change with the agreement of the Recovery <br />Program's participants through the current management process. <br />