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<br />iJ.J~Ol <br /> <br />water management strategies. Nevertheless, for the projected changes in key <br />variables to be consistent, the overall methodology required: <br /> <br />o Consistent interrelationships between national and regional <br />economi c data. <br /> <br />o A minimal, common (and reasonable) set of assumptions about <br />future events (economic, institutional, etc.). <br /> <br />o Clearly articulated projections of exogenous economic variables. <br /> <br />o Estimates of farm production which are sensitive to actual <br />water supplies and cropping conditions in each part of the <br />large Ogallala Region. <br /> <br />o Common economic parameters within which local agricultural <br />production can be estimated. <br /> <br />o A systematic means of summarizing the net effects of all <br />economic changes in the state and regional economy. <br /> <br />A set of interacting, closely linked economic models was selected, <br />adapted, and developed to provide estimates of the impacts on regional agri- <br />cultural production and economic activity. This set of interacting models is <br />graphically depicted in Figure 1 and described in this Appendix. <br /> <br />From the outset of the Study, it was recognized that the complex of eco- <br />nomic models developed for the impact analysis could not answer all the <br />questions raised by those concerned about the future of the Region. For this <br />reason, a series of separate stand-alone studies was developed to deal with <br />these questions. These studies, published separately and sometimes referred <br />to as the "B-series" served a variety of purposes. Some provided inputs to <br />the core economic analysis: <br /> <br />o B-B provided a forecast of energy prices (an input to farm <br />product i on) and the level of act i vity in the energy sectors <br />of the regional economy. <br /> <br />A-3 <br />