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years similar to those projected for Management Strategy One. Higher energy prices alone could provide the incentive for more rapid adoption of new irri- gation techniques. A second effect of higher energy prices is not actually shown in the analysis, but would likely occur. Because imported water must be pumped up much greater distances than ground water from the Ogallala, the operating costs of a water import scheme would increase more rapidly than the farmer1s costs for pumping ground water if energy prices increase at a higher rate. Export Demand In 1978, more than 25 percent of U.S. farm production was exported. Agricultural exports have risen at a rapid rate in the 19701s, far faster than in previous years, and have become a major source of foreign exchange. The historical trend in exports of major High Plains crops (wheat, grain sorghum, cotton) are shown in Figures 9, 10, and 11. These figures also show the projected export increases used in the NIRAP model to calculate future price increases. Also shown on the graphs are extrapolations of the trends in exports from historical experience in the thirty year period from 1950-1979, and for the decade of the 19701s. For cotton and sorghum, the projected increases from 1980 to 2020 lie between the two ranges of historical experience; exports are not expected to expand as rapidly as in the past decade, but will grow more rapidly than they did in the period ending in 1970. Only wheat shows an increase in exports faster than historical trends (there was little difference between the two historical periods for wheat). Export demand is critically dependent on three factors: o Shortfalls in domestic production in importing countries. o Effective demand from these countries, based upon growing real per capita income. o Foreign trade policies. A-I8