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<br />below that experienced from 1950 to the start of the Study period. To assume <br />no increase in yield would imply that agricultural research is abandoned or <br />proves fruitless, and that farmers refuse to adopt new plant varieties and <br />techniques which are already under development. Either result would be <br />contrary to the whole history of American agriculture. On the other hand, <br />there is no reason to assume that the rate of increase in yield over the last <br />thirty years can be sustained or exceeded. Plant scientists consulted in <br />each state believe that the projected increases in yield can be sustained <br />without radical breakthroughs in agricultural research. Unanticipated <br />breakthroughs from genetic engineering or other sources could cause more <br />rapid increases in yield. Unanticipated losses in intrinsic soil fertility <br />could depress yields lower than the estimate used in the Study. <br /> <br />As every farmer knows, increases in production have a compensating <br />effect on price. If yield increases of the level used in the analysis occur <br />in the High Plains, they will likely occur e1sewher7 in the U.S. as well. <br />The NIRAP model projects national farm productivity (the supply curve) to <br />shift to higher levels at the same rate used by state researchers in <br />constructing the LP models. If soil exhaustion, poor agricultural research, <br />or a lack of incentive to farmers to increase productivity (and yield per <br />acre) forces yields below the projected levels, real crop prices must rise <br />unless demand is reduced at the same time. Thus, the farmer will receive an <br />increase in unit price which will partially offset lower total production, <br />and the effect of more limited yields on returns to land and management will <br />be moderated. <br /> <br />The NIRAP model was used to estimate price effects in a low productivity <br />growth scenario. Productivity and yields per acre were assumed to grow at <br />75% of the rate projected in the High Plains Study. As a result, yield per <br />acre for major crops in south central Nebraska in 2020 would be reduced as <br />foll ows: <br /> <br />Crop <br /> <br />Yield <br />Study Projection <br /> <br />Yield - <br />Study - Low Band Sensitivity <br /> <br />Corn <br />Wheat <br />Dry1 and <br />I rri gated <br />Sorghum <br /> <br />202 bujacre <br /> <br />177 <br /> <br />58 bujacre <br />81 bujacre <br />166 bujacre <br /> <br />50 <br />71 <br />141 <br /> <br />A-24 <br />