Laserfiche WebLink
<br /> <br />",... J <br /> <br />CRITICAL SENSITIVITIES IN IMPACT ANALYSIS <br /> <br />The analytic methodology as a whole is sensitlve to five critical fac- <br />tors subJect to variation over the forty year period of the Study and not <br />amenable to precise and deterministic calculation. These factors are: <br /> <br />o water use efficiency <br />o Farm productivity increases (crop yields per acre) <br />o Energy pri ces <br />Q Export demand <br />Q National economic growth rate <br /> <br />The last two factors combine to determine the demand for fOOd and fiber, and <br />thus the price that will be paid for any given amount of a crop which is <br />produced. <br /> <br />A 1 though annua 1 rates of change in each va ri ab 1 e are re 1 at i vely sma 11 , <br />compounding effects over the 40 year Study period produce significant varia- <br />tion in total values by 2020. To test the sensitivity of the interacting <br />models, we have reviewed the changes in model results which will occur in <br />2000 and 2020 if the rates of change in these factors are changed. <br /> <br />The importance of these factors was recognized by the researchers and <br />reviewers from the Consulting Advisory Panel which reviewed the study while <br />in progress. Experts who reviewed the assumptions and projections used in <br />the study differed as to the appropriate estimates, and whether or not the <br />Contractor's projections were too high or too low. The effects of variance <br />in these critical factors are discussed below. <br /> <br />Water Use Efficiency <br /> <br />Each state assessed the applicability of various water saving tech- <br />nologies and the rate at which farmers within the state would adopt these new <br />technologies. As a result, there are variations between states in water use <br />for each crop based upon local soil and climate conditions, method of irriga- <br />tion and projections of improved irrigation technology. In general, high <br />energy prices are expected to push farmers rather quiclly to improvement in <br />irrigation efficiency. <br /> <br />A-17 <br />