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<br /> <br />~.'" -i ., <br /> <br />(taken from national estimates in the INFORUM model) it is possible to pre- <br />dict total employment associated i'iith the projected level of economic <br />activity. Using traditional ratios between population and employment, total <br />regional population is estimated. Wages per employee and income per capita <br />can also be calculated from the results. Yields from the existing state and <br />local tax structure in future years can also be estimated using observed <br />ratios between different types of economic activity and revenue received from <br />different taxes (sales, income, property, severance). <br /> <br />As succeeding water management strategies are analyzed, the changes in <br />agricultural production and farm input requirements are worked through the <br />entire economy by the use of a ITlJltiplier developed from the Baseline I/O <br />production. Energy production is presumed to be independent of agricultural <br />water management strategies. As farm production is increased or decreased by <br />a particular water management strategy. the regional economy and agriculture- <br />related sectors show changes which are a function of the raised or lowered <br />constraint imposed by agricultural production levels. <br /> <br />The results of the state I/O projections of economic activity in the <br />Ogallala portion of each state cannot simply be added to determine the volume <br />of economic activity in the whole High Plains Region. The state I/O models <br />generally have only two regions the High Plains subregion of the state and <br />the "rest of the world". A few may differentiate the rest of the state from <br />the "rest of the world". However. activity in the Ogallala portion of <br />another state is encompassed in the "rest of the world". Thus, purchase of <br />feed grain from the Oklahoma panhandle by a Texas feedlot is not, in fact, <br />a purchase outside the Ogallala. Therefore. it is necessary to build a <br />regional model which avoids the inaccuracies of an accounting approach to <br />determination af total regional economic activity. <br /> <br />In addition, state models vary somewhat in the construction of their <br />transaction tables. The models do nat have identical economic sectors. <br />It is necessary ta aggregate economic sectors from some states and disag- <br />gregate others in order ta develop a standard regional transaction table. <br />Using an approximation of trade flow from the location quotient approach, <br />state results are corrected to adjust for discrepancies resulting from the <br /> <br />.'1-15 <br />