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<br /> <br />........... C' <br /> <br />than one percent of national production were shown in the initial run of a <br />management strategy, the NIRAP model was not used to calculate revised crop <br />prices because only a minimal change in price. generally less than one to two <br />percent. would occur. In this case, the initial crop prices and production <br />totals for a strategy became the final production and price estimates. and <br />the analysis moved on to calculation of the initial estimates of the produc- <br />tion effects of the ne~t strategy using the same set of crop prices. <br /> <br />To exercise the NIRAP crop pricing model, it is necessary to have esti- <br />mates of aggregate national economic activity because domestic demand for <br />food and fiber is determined by population and real per capita income. <br />National economic activity estimates are also necessary for using state and <br />regional input/output [I/O] models to project economic activity in the High <br />Plains. For the High Plains study, the INFORUM forecasting service developed <br />by Clopper Almon. Jr. was used for both purposes. INFORUM projects national <br />input/output matrices including each significant industry sector through <br />the study periOd (2020)[5]*. The picture presented by these projections is <br />one of slow but real economic growth. Over the forty year period, the <br />average rate of U.S. economic growth is faster than that experienced in the <br />1970's, but slower than the prolonged expansion from the end of World War II <br />to 1970. Projections of real per capita income growth estimated by INFORUM <br />are incorporated in the demand estimates of the NIRAP model. The export of <br />agricultural commodities which INFORUM estimates as necessary to finance U.S. <br />imports is similar in magnitude to the export demand estimates contained in <br />the NIRAP model. <br /> <br />The results from the state farm enterprise (LP) models flow into state <br />economic models which use the input/output (I/O) method to project future <br />economic activity [6]*. Purchases by farmers of various inputs (fuel, farm <br />machinery, fertilizers, etc.) provide demand for industries located inside <br />and outside the state or region. Some of the crops produced are sold to <br />other industries in the region--notably cattle feeding-- and the rest of the <br />crop is exported outside the region or outside the Nation. Returns to land <br />and management estimated in the lP models provide income to the farmer and <br />possibly to others who own the land or have loaned money for the purchase of <br /> <br />., See Figure 1. <br /> <br />A.13 <br />