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<br />. <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />. <br /> <br /> <br />,. <br />I <br /> <br />9(,r:: <br />000 \J.) <br /> <br />CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS <br /> <br />An annual regression equation is used to compute what <br />purgatoire River flows "would have been" at Thatcher had the <br /> <br />Model Reservoir storage right not been transferred to <br />Trinidad Reservoir. Other methods of predicting "would have <br />been" flows were investigated. Lack of data precluded phys- <br />ical modeling of the watershed. Monthly regressions were <br />rejected as beinq not. statist ically reasonable. Annual <br />regressions without Van Bremer Arroyo data were not suffi- <br /> <br />ciently accurate for the intended purpose. An annual equa- <br /> <br />tion was regressed from the 1967-1977 data set (equation A) <br /> <br />that has a coefficient of multiple correlation of 0.93 and a <br /> <br />standard error of estimate of 7,600 acre-feet (27 percent of <br /> <br />mean annual flow). Results indicate that this equation <br />includes the important independent variables, a linear rela- <br />tionship adequately models the situation and prediction <br /> <br />errors do not appear to vary through the data ranges. <br /> <br />The proposed reservoir operation addresses use of equa- <br /> <br />tion A, data sources and exchange water. If the proposed <br />operation had been implemented in 1978, ,the purgatoire River <br /> <br />-28- <br />