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<br /> <br />. <br /> <br />080888 <br /> <br />DEVELOPMENT OF THE FLOW PREDICTION METHODOLOGY <br /> <br />General. <br /> <br />In order to administer Trinidad Reservoir, the State <br />Engineer must measure purgatoire River flows at Thatcher as <br />well as predict what flows would have been observed at <br />Thatcher had the Model Reservoir storage right not been <br />transferred. This section deals with the question of <br />predicting the latter. <br /> <br />Two basic types of models are available for prediction <br />of stream flows - physically based deterministic models or <br />statistical models. A physical model, with its inherently <br />desirable characteristics such as wide range of <br />applicability and adjustable individual components, was not <br />formulated because of insufficient data. Model calibration <br />would require stream and climatological data for inflow, <br />outflow and storage for each hydrologically different reach <br />of the river. These data are not available through the <br />historical record. Several years would be required to <br />instrument the system and collect sufficient data and would <br />be extremely expensive. Additional problems related to <br /> <br />-11- <br />