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<br />.. <br /> <br />! <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />critical period associated with each probability. These data were used to <br />. prepare the curves of Figure 1 which indicate the yield available from the <br />system for a desired probability and a given shortage. Since the data are <br />limited it should be understood that these curves are only approximate and <br />give only an indication as to the probabilities involved. <br /> <br />Shortage <br />(Percent) <br />o <br /> <br />2 <br /> <br />4 <br /> <br /> TABLE 1 <br /> Relationships Between <br />Yield - Probability - Shortage <br />Firm Yield Percent probability of Greater Yield <br />(MAF) 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 <br />5.55 93.94 87.50 80.85 73.81 65.85 55.26 <br />(25)Y (49) (50 ) (35 ) (40 ) (41 ) (44 ) <br />5.66 98.08 93.94 87.50 80.85 73.91 65.85 <br />(25 ) (30 ) (49 ) (50 ) ( 35) (36 ) (41) <br />5.78 98.25 98.11 96.23 90.63 84.38 76.09 <br />( 25) (25 ) (29 ) (29 ) (50 ) (50 ) (36) <br /> <br /> 6 5.90 98.11 96.49 90.91 84.85 <br /> (25 ) (29 ) (25 ) (49 ) (49 ) <br /> 8 6.03 98.11 96.49 93.94 <br /> (25 ) (29 ) (25 ) (49 ) <br />!I Figures in parentheses indicate the associated critical period length <br />in years. <br /> <br />5. Calls on the River - Site Specific Shortage Analysis <br /> <br />A "call on the river" occurs when the upper Division is unable to make the <br />required delivery to the Lower Division from Upper Basin storage and must <br />curtail its own uses to meet the delivery from river flows. An analysis of <br />calls was made using the CRSS model. A nominal demand level of 6.1 MAF was <br />used with the 81 hydrologic sequences to analyze the effects and frequency <br />of calls. The hydrologic record was wrapped around so that each sequence <br />was extended to the year 2040 when Upper Basin demands are expected to <br />8 <br />