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of' 9314 J. WILLIAM McDONALD 3 l'I'" 00 C,Jl C,.n from more than 30,000 milligrams per liter (mg/l) to 8S low as 1.000 mg/I. Water of such quality, Which will probably have high fluoride and boron concentra- tions also, would have to be treated before being applied to any industrial use (or before being dis- charged to surface screams 1n the case of excess mine drainage) . Since the shale resource 1s a geologic member of the Piceance Creek structural basin, it 1s likely that ground water will be an important consideration 1n the development of an oil shale industry, whether used as a source of 6upply or not. For example, dewatering of mines and underground retorts could produce amounts of water significantly in excess of a plant's consumptive use requirements. Finally~ the quality of the ground water has cost implication for its use and disposal. Uinta Basin, Utah. The Uinta Basin is a large artesian basin in northeastern Utah which extends from the Colorado border to the edge of the Great Basin near Salt Lake City. The aquifer is presently in a steady-state condition~ with discharge equaling re- charge. Estimates of total water storage have not been made. With respect to water quality. total dissolved solids concentrations range from a high of 4,030 oog/l in the northeast portion of 011 shale tracts U-a and U-b to a low of 1,760 rog/l in the southwest portion. Hardness also varies northeast to southwest from 1,000 rog/l to 69 rog/l. The water is a sodluoo-su1fate- bicarbonate type. The high levels of sulfate and hardness would require treatment for any industrial application. Impacts of Developin~ Water Supplies Developing water supplies for an oil shale in- dustry may be expected to have a variety of economic, social, and ecological impacts. Furthermore. the impacts ~111 vary from one means of supply to the next (e.g., surface water and ground water dev~lop- ment may be expected to lead to different sets of im- pacts) . Impacts of Developing Surface Water Supplies. As noted earlier, surface water supplies will be available only if reservoir and pipeline facilities are constructed. A very small work force is all that would be required to operate and maintain Buch facil- ities (on the order of 1 to 10 people for the ~ater supply system of each unit-sized oil shale plant). In contrast, the operational work force of a unit- sized plant itself ~ould probably number around 1,000 people. Thus, the economic and social impacts of surface water developments would be insignificant in contrast to the substantial impacts which would be caused by the population growth that ~ill be asso- ciated with the development of an oil shale industry. The major impacts of developing surface water supplies would stem from the depletion and re-'regula- tion of stream flows. Fiehery habitat conditions and recreational opportunities (e.g.~ rafting and kay- aking) would be affected. Such effects could either increase or decrease habitat availability and recrea- tional opportunities depending upon the circumstances at hand. While it is difficult to generalize about in- stream impacts, it is probable, given the likely 10- cation of concentrated oil shale developments, that the White River in Colorado and Utah would be more adversely affected than any other river in the Upper Basin. The second most impacted river would likely be the Colorado Main Stem River from about Rifle to Cameo, Colorado. Both of these rivers are inhabited by federally designated rare and endangered species (e.g., the Colorado River squawfish and the humpbak chub). Thus, the availability of surface water for oil shale devel- opment in these two basins is a matter ~hich will have to be considered not only in the context of state water laws, but also 1n the context of the laws and programs pertaining to the preservation and enhance- ment of such species. Impacts of Transferrin~ Water from lrri~ated A~riculture. While it is not anticipated that there need be transfers of significant amounts of water from irrigaced agriculture to the oil shale industry, such transfers are nonetheless possible under each Upper Basin State's water rights system, as noted earlier. The impacts that would be associated with such transfers are discussed below. With respect to economic imp8cts~ an acre-foot of water transferred to the oil shale industry from irrigated agriculture would, all other things being equal, result in a regional loss in personal income due to reductions in the size of agricultural sector. However, there would be a regional income gain due to the increased size of the industrial sector. Gener- ally speaking, the gain would be from 10 to 100 times greater than the loss. Any such transfers would also result in a redistribution of income and economic weal th. Transfers of water from irrigated agriculture would likely reduce the number of farm units in a region and, in turn, the number of families deriving their means from such enterprises. Thus, one might be tempted to infer that significant changes in the rural nature of the Upper Basin would accompany such cransfers. However, the Upper Basin (or certain counties therein) will bear scant resemblance to the rural area it is today if a 1.5 million bbl/day industry does come to pass. Thus. one must conclude that such transfers would play a minor. role in shaping social and economic conditions in the Upper Basin relative to the larger economic and demographic force that would be' brought to bear by oil shale develop- ment in general. It should also be noted that declines in irri- gated agriculture may result from circumstances other than transfers of water. For example, migration of workers out of the agricultural labor market into the more lucrative energy industries could reduce agricultural activities. Other factors that could cause declines in irrigated agriculture, regardless of questions of water transfers, include urban land conversion pressures in energy impacted communities and the general cost-price squeeze that agricultural enterprises face. In short, agricultural activities and the social conditions associated with them will probably change even if the oil shale industry does not purchase water from irrigated agriculture. Impacts of Develo?in~ Ground Water. As with the economic and social impacts of reservoir construction and operation, the impacts of ~ell drilling and maintenance would pale in contrast to the economic