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<br />Energy and Minerals <br /> <br />THE YEAR'S WORK. . . long-term eIIrrgy position of the United States- <br />the future supply of oil and gas-federal policies relaling to electric power <br />-lotIg-rlm trends in copper costs-historical statistics of minerals-peaceful <br />uscs of lIucfear energy. <br /> <br />Emrgy in the United States Economy <br /> <br />- Over the past two years three staff members, Vera EliasbergJ Joseph <br />Lerner, and Bruce Netschert, have been assembling and analyzing ma- <br />terials relating to the long-term energy position of the United States. The <br />methods of analysis used in this general line of research were described <br />in last year's Annual Report. During the 1957-58 year first-draft manu- <br />scripts of most of the segments that comprise this work were completed. <br />The historical material, which was originally intended as a separate mono- <br />graph, is now to be combined with the sections dealing with the future <br />supply and demand for energy. In final form the complete work will <br />thus provide perspective on energy supplies and demand over a period <br />ranging from 1850, for certain of its aspects, to 1975. <br />In looking at the future the study assesses the implications for energy <br />demand of possible changes in the over-all level and structure of national <br />output. The analysis begins with assumptions about the growth of popula- <br />tion and gross national product between 1955 and 1975. and proceeds <br />from these to the projection of future output levels for specific energy- <br />consuming industries and activities within the total. These specific output <br />levels, in turn, provide the basis for estimating the future consumption <br />of individual energy sources and, by summation, total energy. <br />Comparatively high rates of growth are assumed for population and <br />gross national product because one of the main purposes is to determine <br />what problems, if any, will be involved in meeting future energy demands. <br />In relation to population and gross national product, which are assumed <br />to grow by about 40 per cent and 120 per cent~ respectively, between <br />1955 and 1975, total energy consumption (measured in Btu's of fuel <br />input) is estimated to increase by about 85 per cent. (See figure at top <br />page 28.) Thus energy use is estimated to rise about twice as much as <br />population, but at a substantially lower rate than the gross national product. <br /> <br />27 <br />