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<br />l'\) <br />w <br />o <br />00 <br /> <br />be subject to limitations even though the overall size of the EET industry <br />in the Upper Basin did not exceed 1,5 million bb~(day. Wyoming is the only <br />State not likely to confront this situation given che probable siting of <br />potential EET developments. <br /> <br />Besides these four qualifications, the above conclusion is premised <br />upon a "worst case" set of assumptions. The first of these assumptions <br />cOncerns future runoff conditions. The conclusion assumes that the future <br />average annual natural flow of the Colorado River at the compact pointl <br />(Lee Ferry) will be 13.8 million acre-feet (maf). This was the estimated <br />natural flow for the period 1930-1974, which span of time also encompasses <br />the most critical period of record (1931-1974). <br /> <br />The second major assumption concerns projections of depletions by non- <br />EET uses. The conclusion assumes that on-site, averagp. annual depletions <br />by such uses (including reservoir evaporation) increase from about 3.8 maf <br />under present conditions of development to nearly 5.4 maf under year 2000 <br />conditions of development. The projected depletions assume a 500 percent <br />increase in consumption by steam-electric power generation facilities, <br />construction of essentially all of the Upper Basin's presently authorized <br />Federal irrigation projects, and increases in exports out of the Upper <br />Basin approximately equal to the announced intentions of those who are <br />planning to make such exports. If future depletions by non-EET uses were <br />to fall short of this projection, then water would be available to support <br />EET developments in excess of 1.5 million bbl/day, and vice versa. <br /> <br />The third major assumption upon which the conclusion is premised <br />concerns the water-consuming characteristics of EETs. Water consumption <br />is expressed in net terms because certain steps in both high-Btu coal <br />gasification and oil shale retorting processes evolve water. Overall, <br />however, there will be a net consumption of water by these EET facilities <br />(certain experimental oil shale technologies being exceptions). It has been <br />estimated here that net water consumption by 'the oil shale industry would <br />be 5,700 acre-feet per year per unit-sized plant (i.e., per 50,000 bbl/day <br />plant), while net consumption by the high-Btu coal gasification industry <br />would be 7,500 acre-feet per year per unit-sized plant (i.e., per 250 <br />million scf/day plant).2 In addition, the consumption attributable to the <br /> <br />1. The natural, or virgin, flow of a river is that flow which would have <br />occurred if the river were in its natural state unaffected by the activ- <br />ities of man. <br /> <br />2. In the San Juan River Basin, New Mexico, actual consumption estimates <br />for the proposed Utah International, Inc. (WESCO) and El, Paso Natural Gas <br />'facilities were used in lieu of the 7,500 acre-foot estimate. <br /> <br />1-3 <br />