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<br />'. <br /> <br />001607 <br /> <br />year flows are randomly generated, The stochastic method allows a more correct analysis of <br />probabilities however the patterns are not as pronounced as repetitive use of a single historic <br />drawdown period. Either method is an approximation for simulating the future with <br />advantages and disadvantages. For future detelll1inations, the use of stochastic data may be <br />considered. <br /> <br />Surplus Assumptions <br />Beginning Jan 1, 1997, 90 trace model runs of 54 years each were run with the following <br />surplus assumptions: ._ ..__.__ _' __ _ ___-. <br />------ <br />.1996 assumed a surplus use of 400 KAF. <br /> <br />For the runs which added an additional ten years beyond 1996, <br /> <br />1997 assumed surplus use of 650 KAF ( 800 KAF minus 150 KAF that <br />'. CAP'has scheduled additional delivery to entities not currently receiving <br />project water.) <br />For the remaining portion of the 10 years beyond 1997, surplus use of <br />800 KAF was assumed, <br /> <br />Deliveries during normal years were based on the recently updated normal schedules (Table 1) <br />provided by the basin states in which lower basin deliveries total 7.5 MAP_ <br /> <br />Shortage Assumptions <br />In order to perform the analysis shortage criteria were assumed for all runs. The criteria regarding <br />when to initiate shortages was based on determining the minimum storage amount that would need <br />to be maintained above Lake Mead's elevation of 1050 feet such that with releases reduced to <br />shortage deliveries, the risk of Lake Mead dropping below elevation 1050 was 20%. Normal <br />delivery is assumed once Lake Mead rises.back again above the shortage trigger elevation, The <br />storage amount needed to maintain this level of protection increases as uses increase. Elevation <br />1050 feet is the minimum intake elevation for diversions by the Southern Nevada Water"Supply <br />System. <br /> <br />When a shortage is triggered, CAP delivery is assumed to be reduced from 1.4 MAP to 1.0 MAP <br />or about by 30% of its normal delivery. The delivery for Southern Nevada is reduced by 4% of <br />CAP's 0.4 MAP reduction or 16 KAF. <br /> <br />Data Monitored <br />To evaluate the effects the following items were monitored: <br /> <br />Annual Shortage Probability <br />Average Lower Basin Shortage <br /> <br />Annual Flood Release Probability <br />Average Flood Release Volume <br />