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<br />-"_A <br /> <br />O;1J~('n~ <br />U.A.U'j"_' <br /> <br />DRAFT <br />7/18/96 <br /> <br />SUFFICIENCY OF COLORADO RIVER STORAGE <br />TO SATISFY CONSUMPTIVE USE <br />IN EXCESS OF 7.5 MAP <br />IN THE LOWER DIVISION STATES <br /> <br />AS OF JULY 1, 1996 <br /> <br />BACKGROUND <br />In accordance with the Criteria for Coordinated Long-Range Operation of Colorado River <br />Reservoirs (Operating Criteria), the Secretary of Interior shall determine when mainstream <br />water, in quantities greater than normal, is available for either pumping or release from Lake <br />Mead to satisfY consumptive use in excess of7.5 million acre-feet. Such a determination is <br />defined as a surplus. The Operating Criteria goes on to identify relevant factors to be <br />considered in making such a determination. These factors included current and projected <br />contents of Lake Mead and the Upper Basin reservoirs, estimated inflow into Lake Mead, <br />requests for water by holders of mainstream water rights, river and reservoir losses, and other <br />factors. . <br /> <br />As of July 3, 1996, total system contents of all Colorado River basin reservoirs amounted to <br />50,750,000 acre-feet, or about 83% of the total active storage capacity, In addition to the <br />reservoirs being relatively full, the average natural inflow is substantially greater than the total <br />normal use during 1996 of Colorado River water in the United States and Mexico. However <br />for 1996, total requests for consumptive use of mainstream water in the Lower Division are <br />now at 7.911 MAP, exceeding the 7.5 MAP normal apportionment. <br /> <br />Recognizing that the reservoir system is relatively full, and that Lower Division requests are <br />exceeding 7.5 MAP an analysis was performed to examine relevant factors to allow a . <br />detennination of whether storage was sufficient to satisfY consumptive use in excess of <br />7.5 MAF in the Lower Division for] 996. The analysis was performed using Reclamation's <br />CRSSez Annual Colorado River System Simulation Model (CRSSez Model) as documented in <br />the April 1996 Users Manual. <br /> <br />This analysis is intended to provide some technical background from which a detennination <br />can be made as to whether to declare a surplus. The analysis utilizes the current and projected <br />data on hydrologic conditions and on water demands to simulate the Colorado River system <br />and compare the effects of surplus deliveries. Consultations with the Basin States are underway <br />for developing surplus criteria. Reclamation is hopeful that surplus criteria can be developed <br />to facilitate and guide future decisions~ However, an agreed to surplus strategy has not yet <br />been identified, and adopted by the basin states. <br /> <br />As 1996 water orders by the Lower Division States exceed 7.5 MAP, Reclamation, acting for <br />the Secretary of Interior, is called upon to make the detennination without the benefit of <br />