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<br />OiJ:J452 <br /> <br />E. PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING GIVEN <br />AMOUNTS (5, 10, 15, and 20 INCHES) OF <br />PRECIPITATION DURING THE WATER YEAR <br />AFTER I JANUARY, I MARCH, AND I MAY <br /> <br />1. Probability of Receiving <br />More Than 5 Inches of Precipitation <br />During the Balance of the Water Year <br /> <br />Figure 15 shows the probability of receiving <br />more than 5 inches of precipitation during the water <br />year after the calendar dates t January, t March, <br />and I May. For example. the probability of Gun- <br />nison receiving more than 5 inches of precipitation <br />after the first of January is 92.31 per cent, while <br />the corresponding probability after 1 May is <br />59.62 per cent. <br /> <br />2. Probability of Recei"ving <br />More Than 10 Inches of Precipitation <br />During the Balance of the Water Year <br /> <br />Probability of receiving more than 10 inches <br />of precipitation after the calendar dates of t Jan- <br />uary, 1 March, and 1 May are given in Figure 16. <br />Figure 16 shows. for example. that the probability <br />of receiving more than 10 inches of precipitation <br />after 1 January for Gunnison is 26.92 per cent. <br /> <br />13 <br /> <br />The corresponding probabilities for Gunnison of <br />receiving more than 10 inches of precipitation <br />after 1 March and 1 May are 1.92, and 0 per cent <br />respectively. <br /> <br />3. Probability of Receiving <br />More Than 15 Inches of Precipitation <br />During the Balance of the Water Year <br /> <br />The probabilities of receiving more than 15 <br />inches of precipitation during the water year fol- <br />lowing 1 January, 1 March, and '1 May are given <br />in Figure 17. Only for the higher altitude stations <br />is there any significant probability of receiving <br />more than 15 inches of precipitation in the water <br />year following 1 January. <br /> <br />4. Probability of Receiving <br />More Than 20 Inches of Precipitation <br />During the Balance of the Water Year <br /> <br />For most of the stations in the Upper Colo- <br />rado River Basin the probability of receiving more <br />than 20 inches of precipitation after the 1 st of May <br />is zero. Only for Silverton is the probability <br />greater than zero. For the rest of the stations in <br />the Upper Colorado River Basin none of these years <br />of record gave as much as 20 inches of precipita- <br />tion during the water year after 1 May. (Figure 18). <br />