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<br />00l~Ljd <br /> <br />13) The Record of Decision for Interim Surplus Guidelines (as modeled in the ISC FEIS) <br />will be used to determine surplus conditions. The surplus criteria will be in effect for a <br />]2-year period beginning on January I, 2005 and ending December 3], 20]6. At the <br />conclusion of the I 2-year period, the surplus criteria will revert to the 70R Strategy. <br /> <br />14) The shortage assumptions used in the SIA-FEIS will not be applied to the operation of <br />Lake Mead. At times when Lake Mead does not have enough water to meet all <br />downstream demands (7.5 maffyr to the Lower Basin states, plus 1.5 maffyr to Mexico), <br />a mass balance will be used to determine how much water is available for downstream <br />delivery in each month (inflow plus water in storage above dead pool minus losses). The <br />amount of shortage will be computed as the total downstream demand minus the water <br />available. The shortage will be divided on a prorated basis using each entity's <br />apportionment divided by the total apportionment for those entities sharing in the <br />shortage. SNWA's lower intake will be assumed to be at 1000 feet and therefore, no <br />deliveries will be made to SNW A if Lake Mead is below that elevation. <br />a) lfLake Mead's elevation is greater than or equal to 1000 feet: <br />i) Arizona will be assigned 60.87% of the total amount of the shortage (2.8 divided <br />by 2.8+ 1.5+0.3 = 4.6) <br />ii) Mexico will be assigned 32.61 % of the total amOlmt of the shortage (1.5 divided <br />by 4.6) <br />iii) Nevada will be assigned 6.52% of the total amount of the shortage (0.3 divided <br />by 4.6) <br />b) If Lake Mead's elevation is \ess than 1000 feet: <br />i) Arizona will be assigned 65.12% of the total amount of the shortage (2.8 divided <br />by 2.8+ 1.5 = 4.3) <br />ii) Mexico will be assigned 34.88% of the total amount of the shortage (1.5 divided <br />by 4.6) <br /> <br />Recall that in the current model configuration, the Priority 4 uses in Arizona are not <br />currently represented separately (SIA-FEIS, Appendix G, page 2-5). Therefoe, all of <br />Arizona's shortage is assumed to be absorbed by the Central Arizona Project (CAP), <br />down to a total delivery of 72 kaffyr. This minimum delivery reflects the water delivered <br />by CAP to Native American Tribes (the Ak-Chin and Pima-Maricopa Indian <br />Conununities ). <br /> <br />If there is still not sufficient water to meet remaining downstream demands once CAP is <br />at its minimum delivery of72 kaf /year, the MWD will absorb the remaining amount of <br />the shortage. <br /> <br />Note: The shortage strategy used in the SIA-FElS was a "two-level" strategy. At the 1st <br />level, Lake Mead elevation 1083 feet (the published minimum power fool elevation) was <br />protected with a probability of approximately 80 percent. At the 2" level, Lake Mead <br />elevation of 1000 feet was protected with a nearly 100% probability (SIA-FEIS, Volume II, <br />Appendix G, Section 2.4, page 2.7). <br /> <br />L over/ <br /> <br />Draft: Subject to Change <br /> <br />3 <br /> <br />Last Revision: May 13,2004 <br />