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<br />OUl988 <br /> <br />Proposed Modeling Assumptions <br />Drougbt Management Assessment <br />Scenario #1 <br /> <br />I) Future hydrology will be generated from the historic record of natural flows (from 1906 <br />through 1995) using the Index Sequential Method. 90 simulations will be run. <br /> <br />2) Reservoir starting conditions (all system reservoirs) are based on projected water level <br />elevations for January 1,2005, and the model will be run through 2074. <br /> <br />3) Future water demands for Lower and Upper Basin diversions will be based on depletion <br />projections prepared by the Basin States and published in Volwne II, Appendix G, of the <br />Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Implementation Agreement, Inadvertent <br />Ovenun and Payback Policy, and Related Federal Actions (SIA-FEIS), with the <br />exception ofthe Imperial Irrigation District (lID), the Coachella Water District <br />(CVWD), and the Metropolitan Water District of South em California (MWD). <br />Depletion schedules under nonnal conditions for 00, MWD, and CVWD will be as <br />specified by the Colorado River Water Delivery Agreement (Exhibit B) and will include <br />paybacks for 2001 and 2002 (Exhibit C). References for all other depletion schedules are <br />as follows: <br />a) Future water demands under nonnal conditions for all other Lower Basin diversions, <br />SIA-FEIS, Volume II, Appendix G, Attaclunent A. <br />b) Future water demands under surplus conditions for all Lower Basin diversions, SIA- <br />FEIS, Volume II, Appendix G, Attachment C. <br />c) Future water demands for all Upper Basin diversions, SIA-FEIS, Volume II, <br />Appendix G, Attachment B. <br /> <br />4) Under nonnal conditions, the depletion schedule for the Mexican delivery will be set to <br />1.572 mafy. The additional 72 kaf over Mexico's basic apportionment reflects the <br />average over-deliveries to Mexico for the period 1964-2003 (excluding years when there <br />were flood control releases on the Colorado main stem or Gila River). Under Lake Mead <br />flood control release conditions (i.e., a flood control surplus), Mexico will receive up to <br />I. 7 mar <br /> <br />5) Bypasses to the Cienega de Santa Clara in Mexico will be assumed to be 109,000 acre- <br />feet per year (the historical average from 1990- 2003) and will not be counted as part of <br />the Treaty delivery. Replacement of the bypassed water will not be assumed to occur in <br />the fhture. <br /> <br />6) Upper Basin reservoir operating mles (excluding Lake Powell) will be those used in the <br />SIA-FEIS. Under those mles, operation ofreservoirs above Lake Powell is independent <br />of Lake Powell's operation. <br />, <br /> <br />7) Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu will be operated in accordance with their cxisting rule <br />curves. ,:., <br /> <br />Draft: Subjecllo Change <br /> <br />Lasl Revision: May 13, 2004 <br />