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<br />The Navajo Tribal Utility Authority in New Mexico has <br />requested 7,600 alf for its growing needs. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />population Projections <br /> <br />After 1970, a new period of population growth began, <br />attributable primarily to renewed exploration for oil, gas, <br />and coal in New Mexico and to the appeal of the entire area <br />to those seeking to live in rural and scenic surroundings. <br /> <br />Estimated water requirements of the project area increase <br />from 6,700 acre-feet per year in 1980 to about 59,200 acre <br />feet per year in 2020. The need for new industrial supplies <br />is estimated at 32,500 acre feet per year by 2020. (Definite <br />Plan Report pg. 18) These estimates are based on continuous <br />population growth. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />I}, <br /> <br />Population projections are crucial to water planning <br />studies, because all future water demands are based on those <br />projections. If the population projections are high, the <br />examination of project alternatives will be skewed because <br />the alternatives will appear unable to meet the high demand. <br />In addition, the elevated costs of the project end up being <br />borne by a smaller population. If the population projections <br />are low, the facility will rapidly become inadequate and <br />will need to be expanded sooner than expected. <br /> <br />The Bureau of Reclamation's projected population growth <br />rates for the Colorado portion of the project are 3.4 <br />percent annually to 1990 (the growth rate of the city <br />of Durango in the late 1970's) and 1.9 percent annually <br />from 2000 to 2020. The Colorado portion of the project is <br />expected to have a population of about 53,000 by the year <br />2020, or nearly three times the estimated 1976 popUlation of <br />18,000. <br /> <br />In the New Mexico portion of the project area, popUlation <br />projections to 1985 were based on the late 1970'. San Juan <br />County ~nnual growth rate of 5.7; the historic county growth <br />rate of 3.6 percent annually was applied to years from 1985 <br />to 2000, and the current State growth rate of 2.4 percent to <br />the years 2001 - 2020. Thus the population of the New Mexico <br />portion of the area is expected to approximate 267,000 by <br />the year 2020, about 4.6 times the estimated 1976 population <br />of 57,550. <br /> <br />These projections are based on data provided by the state, <br />county, and local governments and planning office. and <br />various consulting engineer'S reports. <br /> <br />i <br />~ <br />~ <br /> <br /> <br />18 <br />