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<br />-. <br /> <br />Modeling/Hydrology Overview <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />Why do we run models? <br />· to examine the impacts of different operating criteria <br />assuming some knowledge of the future hydrology <br />· a single run example <br /> <br />e <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />How can we quantify the uncertainty of the future? <br />· single model run using "the worst-case" <br />· multiple model runs using different predictions of future <br />hydrologic inflows <br />· compare summary statistics (average, standard <br />deviation, relative frequency of occurence, etc.) <br />'-- -v- -" <br /> <br />pro I:x::t.~ ry <br />The number of parameters is large -> hold some common <br />between model runs <br /> <br />e <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />US Bureau of Reclamation <br /> <br />June 3, 1997 <br />