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These requirements were aggregated as production in- dices for total cropland and forage (pasture and range) production. Table 17 summarizes projected cropland and forage production expressed by index numbers above the current normal base. Table 17 - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION REQUIREMENTS IN TERMS OF CROP AND FORAGE FOR THE MISSOURI BASIN Year Current Normal 1980 2000 2020 Production Requirements Index 100 134 164 207 A generalized analytical model was used to project production patterns and to compare the capacity of the basin's agricultural resources to meet the projected regional requirements. The mathematical process used, linear programming, is an automated form of enterprise budgeting. Basic assumptions and significant features of the model are discussed in the appendix, "Present and Future Needs". In order to fully assess the capability of the basin in relation to projected national food and fiber require- men ts, it was necessary to proceed with plan fonnu- lation to determine all the factors affecting agricultural production. The estimates of projected capability of agricultural land in future time periods required recog- nition of emerging research and technology, improved management, and other related programs such as on- farm conservation treatment, irrigation development, livest()r.k water improvement, and such other on-farm measures which are embodied in historical trends. In addition, enhancement or stabilization of agricultural production through further water resource development, such as flood control and drainage required quantifi- cation for eventual comparison with projected require- ments. These evaluations are presented and discussed in chapter 8. Further wmplicating the agricultural production requirements for the basin, is the inability at this time to demonstrate its capacity and efficiency with respect to other water resource regions. The ability of these other regions to meet their shares of national requirements beyond 1980 is unknown. Therefore, future analyses of national-interregional capacities and relative efficiencies may require substantive changes in allocated regional shares of projected national production requirements. Aside from their share of the projected Nation's food and fiber needs, and their ability to fulfill those needs, the residents of the basin, and the Nation for that matter, are interested in many other objectives. These include such items as the preservation of natural resources, alleviation of economic losses, maintenance 54 and improvement of the physical and social environ- ment, stabilization of annual production and income, main tenance of the rural population, raising of low incomes, perpetuation of the farm family as an economic farm unit, and general stability and growth of the basin's economy founded heavily on agriculture. These objectives embody the desire to improve the course of economic growth with respect to the Nation and to attain all practicable stability not only in the basic agriculture but in the many industrial and service activities heavily dependent thereon. In long-range plan- ning there is need to consider these objectives as well as the basin's share of projected national food and fiber requirements and how the national and regional objec- tives in agriculture may finally relate to each oth~r. Irrigation Irrigated agriculture has progressed over most of the basin recognizing the need to stabilize and enhance agricultural production naturally subject to inadequacies in moisture supplies. Undertaken early in the western and more arid portions of the basin, development has progressed eastward, with all but the Lower Missouri Subbasin showing significant acreages under irrigation service in ] 965. Recen t developmen t has progressed at the rate of about 200,000 acres added per year. Possibly 30 percent of the existing development is from ground- water supplies where irrigation is the only purpose served. For the remaining 70 percent served by surface waters, the often associated storage features for many developments also serve one or more collateral purposes of flood control, hydroelectric power production, re<.:n:alion, fish and wildlife, and municipal and indus- trial water supply. Aside from the lands irrigated, their stabilized and increased production helps stabilize a large periphery of non-irrigated agricultural operations, partic- ularly as regards livestock. Irrigated acreages were projected, based on those developments envisioned and desired by local interests and which appear logical and feasible with respect to multiple-purpose resource development. On this basis, table 18 summarizes the current and projected irrigation acreages for each of the eight subbasins. These projec- tions reflect a major regional objective to attain certain levels of an agricultural economy and include judgments as to availability of water, relative quality and efficiencies of water supplies, suitability of lands, and the ability of the farm operators to assume the necessary financial costs. As presented in the appendix, "Land Resources Availability", about 64 million acres of land are potentially suitable for irrigation. Of this amount, less than ] 2 percent, or 7.4 million acres are currently being irrigated with a full water supply. Projections to 2020, as shown in table 18, indicate that irrigation