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<br />critical period associated with each probability. These data were use <br />prepare the curves of Figure 1 which indicate the yield available from <br />system for a desired probability and a given shortage. Since the data <br />limited it should be understood that these curves are only approximate <br />give only an indication as to the probabilities involved. <br /> <br /> <br />o <br />(i <br />(.~ <br />..c. <br />m <br />~ <br /> <br />Shortage <br />(Percent) <br />o <br /> <br />2 <br /> <br />4 <br /> <br />6 <br /> <br /> TABLE 1 <br /> Relationships Between <br />Yield ~ Probability - Shortage <br />Firm Yield Percent Probability of Greater Yield <br />(MAE') 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 <br />5.55 93.94 87.50 80.85 73.81 65.85 55.26 <br />(25)Y (49 ) (50 ) (3S) (40 ) (41 ) (44 ) <br />5.66 98.08 93.94 87.50 80.85 73.91 65.85 <br />(25 ) (30 ) (49 ) (50 ) (35 ) (36) (41 ) <br />5.78 98.25 98.11 96.23 90.63 84.38 76..09 <br />(25 ) (25) (29 ) (29 ) (50 ) (50) (36 ) <br />5.90 98.11 96.49 90.91 84.85 <br />(25 ) (29) (25 ) (49 ) (49 ) <br /> <br /> 8 6.03 98.11 96.49 93.94 <br /> (25 ) (29 ) (25 ) (49 ) <br />1/ Figures in parentheses indicate the associated critical period length <br />in years. <br /> <br />S. Calls on the River - Site Specific Shortage Analysis <br /> <br />A .call on the river" occurs when the Upper Oivision is unable to make the <br />required delivery to the Lower Division from Upper Basin storage and must <br />curtail its own uses to meet the delivery from river flows. An analysis c <br />calls was made using the CRSS model. A nominal demand level of 6.1 MAE' wa <br />used with the 81 hydrologic sequences to analyze the effects and frequency <br />of calls. The hydrologic record was wrapped around so that each sequence <br />was extended to the year 2040 when upper Basin demands are expected to <br /> <br /> <br />B <br />