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<br /> <br /> <br />project i rr'igation energy consumption to decl i ne over the study period, <br />and three of the four states, Colorado, Kansas, and New Mexico, expect <br />the amount of energy used in 2020 to be less than half the amount used <br />in 1985. <br />Two principal factors account for the decline in energy use, One <br />factor is aquifer depletion; all states except Nebraska project a net decrease <br />in irrigated acreage over the study period. The other factor responsible <br />for the decline in energy used for irrigation is that the LP models assume <br />the development of more efficient irrigation practices. This can be seen <br />from the data which show that for all states except Oklahoma the energy <br />consumed per irrigated acre and the water applied per irrigated acre <br />decline over the study period. <br /> <br />6,1.2 Energy Commodity Substitution Under Baseline Projections <br />The LP model results, in addition to showing a general decline in <br />energy used for irrigation, reveal that the mix of energy sources used <br />for irrigation, in general, changes over the period in response to changing <br />relative price levels and technology improvements. Table 6-3 summarizes <br />the projected energy commodity mix for each state. The LP models of <br />Colorado, Nebraska, and New Mexico all predict a decrease in each state's <br />dependence on the energy source likely to be used most heavily in that <br />state in 1985. Each of the three states becomes more diversified in terms <br />of its energy use over the study period. The LP models of Kansas, <br />Oklahoma, and Texas maintain essentially the same energy commodity mix <br />over the enti re study period. <br /> <br />6.2 SENSITIVITY OF MODELS TO HIGHER ENERGY PRICES <br />Sensitivity analyses test the responsiveness of a LP model to the <br />value of a particular variable. Given the acknowledged uncertainty <br />associated with any projected energy prices, Black & Veatch requested <br />that the states test the sensitivity of their LP model results to higher <br />energy prices. Black & Veatch prepared an alternative high band energy <br />price projection, at the states' request, which is significantly higher with <br />respect to natural gas and petroleum products than the high band prices <br /> <br />6-6 <br />