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<br />6-1 <br /> <br /> <br />q ,f'!) ? f) f) /~ <br />\~' '-- .'." :~, :., .... <br /> <br />SECTION 6.0 <br />SENSITIVITY OF STATE FARM BUDGET MODEL RESULTS TO <br />ENERGY PRICE PROJECTIONS* <br /> <br />The State A-1 researchers developed linear programming (LP) models <br />to estimate agricultural production levels and related input requirements <br />given various constraints on production. The LP models were formulated <br />in an independent manner and they incorporated each state's assumptions <br />of the primary determinants of and limits on agricultural production. One <br />advantage of LP models is that they can be used to determine the sensitivity <br />of the results to a change in a variable of interest by inputting different <br />values for a particular variable, assuming all other input values remain <br />constant. Three states, Kansas, Nebraska, and New Mexico, tested the <br />sensitivity of their LP model results to higher energy prices. <br />The following paragraphs discuss the Baseline LP results reported <br />by the six High Plains states as well as the high energy price sensitivity <br />results for the three states mentioned above. Since the general economic <br />indicators are discussed as part of the other regional study elements, this <br />discussion focuses solely on the energy requirements projected by the LP <br />models. <br /> <br />6.1 BASELINE ENERGY USE <br />Table 6-1 summarizes selected Baseline results of the six state LP <br />models, as supplied by the states to Black & Veatch. The trends and <br />rates of change for the various models are more comparable than the <br />absolute values and are presented in Table 6-2 for some energy related <br />variables. <br /> <br />6.1.1 Energy Consumption for Irrigation <br />The data in Table 6-2 document the generally declining on-farm <br />energy use in the High Plains region. Four of the states LP models <br /> <br />*This report section was completed in February 1982. <br />