WSP01333

• File Number: 8407
• Description: Platte River Basin - River Basin General Publications
• State: CO
• Basin: South Platte
• Water Division: 1
• Date: 4/1/1980
• Author: Six State High Plain
• Title: Six State High Plains-Ogallala Aquifer Area Study - Energy Price and Technology Assessment - Energy Price Projections
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page
1.0 INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY 1-1
1.1 PURPOSE OF ENERGY PRICE PROJECTIONS 1-1
1.2 SUMMARY 1-3
2.0 PRICE PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES 2-1
2.1 JUDGMENT 2-1
2.2 MATHEMATICAL MODELS 2-1
2.3 HISTORICAL TREND ANALYSIS 2-4
2.4 REFERENCES 2-4
3.0 PRIMARY ENERGY COMMODITY PRICE PROJECTIONS 3-1
3.1 DATA BASES 3-1
3.2 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 3-3
3.3 PROJECTED PRIMARY ENERGY COMMODITY PRICES 3-4
3.3.1 Projected Coal Prices 3-4
3.3.2 Projected Crude Petroleum Prices 3-6
3.3.3 Projected Natural Gas Prices 3-7
3.4 REFERENCES 3-8
4.0 PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCT PRICE
PROJECTIONS 4-1
4.1 REFERENCES 4-1
5.0 ELECTRICITY PRICE PROJECTIONS 5-1
5.1 REFERENCES 5-2
6.0 SENSITIVITY OF STATE FARM BUDGET MODEL RESULTS TO
ENERGY PRICE PROJECTIONS 6-1
6.1 BASELINE ENERGY USE 6-1
6.1.1 Energy Consumption for Irrigation 6-1
6.1.2 Energy Commodity Substitution Under Baseline
Prqjections 6-6
6.2 SENSITIVITY OF MODELS TO HIGHER ENERGY PRICES 6-6
6.2.1 En~rgy Use 6-12
6.2.2 En~rgy Commodity Substitution 6-12
6.2.3 Ecc;>nomic Impacts 6-16