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<br />3-7 <br /> <br /> <br />"'1')')'7 <br />,_..I. ! <~, .. , <br /> <br />crude petroleum replacement costs support the historical price trend <br />analysis projection. Appendix D summarizes the crude petroleum replace- <br />ment cost evaluation. <br /> <br />TABLE 3-2. PROJECTED REGIONAL CRUDE PETROLEUM PRICES <br />(AT WELLHEAD) AND OTHER RECENT PROJECTIONS <br />(1977 Dollars Per MBtu) <br /> <br /> Year <br />Projection 1980 1985 1990 2000 2020 <br />High Plains Study <br />High 3.72 5.05 5.16 5.36 5.82 <br />Expected 3.38 4.21 4.30 4.47 4.85 <br />Low 3.38 3.80 3.80 3.80 3.80 <br />Other* <br />DOE 2.41 3.01 <br />ETA 2.78 3.55 <br />NORD 2.83 3.05 <br />DESOM 2.75 3.36 <br />SHCA 2.88 3.41 4.43 4.43 <br />SRI 2.76 2.95 3.35 3..69 <br />FAI 2.18 2.43 2.87 <br />*See Appendix C for discussion of other projections and bibliographical <br />information. <br /> <br />3.3.3 Projected Natural Gas Prices (at Wellhead) <br />, <br />Current Feder..1 policy, as provided for by the Natural Gas Policy <br />Act of 1978, was to price natural gas and natural gas products at an equiva- <br />lent dollar per MBtl.l to substitute fuels in 1985. The energy commodity <br />generally considerec;l the substitute fuel for natural gas at wellhead is <br />crude petroleum at wellhead. It was judged that there might be as much <br />as a five-year lag in price equalization due to the regulatory implementation <br />process. However, by 1990 natural gas prices at wellhead were assumed <br />