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<br />3-1 <br /> <br /> <br />n~n,f~~/ <br />) . ' ~. >~ ,'.. ;; <br /> <br />SECTION 3.0 <br />PRIMARY ENERGY COMMODITY PRICE PROJECTIONS <br /> <br />Projections of prices for coal f.o.b. mine, crude petroleum at well- <br />head, and natural gas at wellhead were developed using a historical-trend, <br />statistical analysis methodology. There were two principal activities in <br />developing the price projections: (1) development and evaluation of <br />appropriate data bases, and (2) statistical analysis of long-term rate-of- <br />change. These two activities are discussed in the following sections. <br />Also presented are discussions of each primary energy commodity price <br />projection. <br /> <br />3.1 DATA BASES <br />For each of the primary energy forms, data bases were developed <br />from the most reliable sources which were as extensive as possible. <br />Appendix B presents the data bases. Data bases for both the United <br />States and the six-state High Plains Region were developed to allow an <br />assessment of any possible regional/national historical price differences. <br />The data bases were compiled in constant 1967 dollars, with current <br />prices deflated using the Producer Price Index. * The Producer Price <br />I ndex was chosen because it is more appropriate for the primary energy <br />commodities than thE! Consumer Price Index. <br />National and regional historical prices for coal, crude petroleum, and <br />natural gas are shown in Figures 3-1, 3-2, and 3-3. Based on these <br />comparisons, there ~eems no clear basis for differentiating the High Plains <br />Region from the United States for the purposes of this study. In addition, <br />the national data bapes are statistically more significant. Therefore, the <br />United States data bases were used for developing the primary energy <br />form price projections for the High Plains Region. <br /> <br />*Prices were inflated to 1977 dollars after the trend projections were <br />developed. <br />