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<br />to be false, the peak discharges of these floods were <br />revised upward by Gatewood and Hunter in 1938 to <br />300,000 and 220,000 ft3/s, respectively. The analyses <br />in this paper of the raw data from Lees Ferry (which <br />accounts for the progressive development of backwatered <br />flow conditions in the reach at high stages), of the surveys <br />of high-water marks at the Grand Canyon gaging station <br />and at River-mile 233.7, and of the published data from <br />other upstream and downstream gaging stations, indicate <br />that the most likely peak discharges of the 1884 and 1921 <br />floods at Lees Ferry were 21O,000:!:30,000 ft3/s and <br />170,000:!:20,000 ft3/s, values close to those originally <br />estimated by the USGS. <br />The progressive flattening of the water-surface <br />profile at high stages and the consequent downward <br />revision in the peak discharges of these two floods imply <br />that the peak discharges in the 4,500-year paleoflood <br />series of O'Connor and others (1994) need to be revised, <br />The peak discharges of many of the prehistoric floods <br />associated with these paleoflood deposits were, in fact, <br />comparable to the peak discharges of floods during the <br />early part of the 20th century. This observation leads to a <br />minimum reduction of a factor of two in the return periods <br />for these floods estimated by O'Connor and others (1994). <br />Analyses of the 1921-2000 continuous record of <br />instantaneous discharge provide insight into the pre-dam <br />natural variability in the discharge of the Colorado River, <br />and the hydrologic changes imposed on the Colorado <br />River in Grand Canyon National Park by the construction <br />and operation of Glen Canyon Dam. The continuous <br />record of instantaneous discharge can be either requested <br />from the USGS Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research <br />Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, or obtained electronically at <br />http://www,gcmrc,gov. <br />Prior to the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in March <br />1963, the discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry <br />varied substantially over decadal time scales, The median <br />discharge during the driest decade, the 1930s (6,720 ft3/s), <br />differed from the median discharge during the wettest <br />decade, the 1920s (10,700 ft3/s), by a factor of 1.6, The <br />median discharge for the entire pre-dam period from <br />May 8, 1921, through March 12, 1963, was 7,980 ft3/s. <br />Although large floods were common in the pre-dam river, <br />discharges exceeded 18,500 ft3/s only about 25 percent of <br />the time, Topping and others (2000) showed that sand <br />accumulated substantially in the pre-dam river in Marble <br />and upper Grand Canyons only when the discharge was <br />lower than about 9,000 ft3/s, and that sand eroded from <br />Marble and upper Grand Canyons when the discharge <br />was higher than about 16,000 ft3/s, The pre-dam decadal <br /> <br />variation in discharge therefore had major implications for <br />sand storage in Marble and upper Grand Canyons; the <br />1920s were likely the pre-dam decade most dominated by <br />erosion of sand from this reach, and the 1930s were likely <br />the pre-dam decade most dominated by accumulation of <br />sand in this reach, <br />During the pre-dam era, the discharge of the river <br />was fairly steady over sub-daily time scales, with a <br />median daily rauge in discharge of only 542 ft3/s. <br />Therefore, daily mean discharges provide a reasonable <br />characterization of the hydrology of the pre-dam river. <br />An exception is the summer thunderstorm season, when <br />the daily range in discharge was observed to exceed <br />30,000 ft3/s, but these extreme daily ranges occurred on <br />average only dUling I day in every 3 years. Daily ranges <br />in discharge were larger than 10,000 ft3/s only during <br />I percent of all pre-dam days. The median daily range <br />in discharge was greatest during the June part of the <br />snowmelt flood (3,230 ft3/s). The decadal daily range in <br />discharge was somewhat correlated with the decadal <br />discharge. As in the case of discharge, the median daily <br />range in discharge during the dtiest decade, the 19305 <br />(516 ft3/s), differed from the median discharge during the <br />wettest decade, the 1920s (808 ft3/s), by a factor of 1.6. <br />The operation of Glen Canyon Dam has removed <br />the seasonality from discharge and from the daily range <br />in discharge. Dam operations have removed flood flows <br />and base flows, and dam operations for hydroelectric <br />power generation have introduced wide-ranging daily <br />fluctuations in discharge that are relatively consistent <br />throughout the year, The changes that dam operations <br />have imposed on the hydrology of the Colorado River at <br />Lees Ferry exceed anything in the quasi-natural pre-dam <br />period of record. <br />As for the pre-dam tiver, discharge and the daily <br />range in discharge have varied substantially over decadal <br />time scales in the post -dam river as dam operations <br />have evolved in response to the filling of Lake Powell <br />reservoir and to growing concern about the effects of dam <br />operations on the downstream Colorado River ecosystem. <br />From the 1960s to the 1990s, the median discharge of the <br />Colorado River at Lees Ferry increased from 9.490 ft3/s <br />to 13,500 ft3/s. During the wettest post-dam decade, the <br />1980s, the median discharge of the Colorado River at <br />Lees Ferry was 15,900 ft3/s, only slightly higher than <br />that during the 1990s. During the four post-dam <br />decades, discharges under which sand can accumulate <br />in Marble and upper Grand Canyons have progressively <br />disappeared. During the 1960s, discharge was greater than <br />9,000 ft3/s 52,7 percent of the time; during the 1970s, <br /> <br />02223 <br /> <br />Conclusions 57 <br />