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<br />to be false, the peak discharges of these floods were
<br />revised upward by Gatewood and Hunter in 1938 to
<br />300,000 and 220,000 ft3/s, respectively. The analyses
<br />in this paper of the raw data from Lees Ferry (which
<br />accounts for the progressive development of backwatered
<br />flow conditions in the reach at high stages), of the surveys
<br />of high-water marks at the Grand Canyon gaging station
<br />and at River-mile 233.7, and of the published data from
<br />other upstream and downstream gaging stations, indicate
<br />that the most likely peak discharges of the 1884 and 1921
<br />floods at Lees Ferry were 21O,000:!:30,000 ft3/s and
<br />170,000:!:20,000 ft3/s, values close to those originally
<br />estimated by the USGS.
<br />The progressive flattening of the water-surface
<br />profile at high stages and the consequent downward
<br />revision in the peak discharges of these two floods imply
<br />that the peak discharges in the 4,500-year paleoflood
<br />series of O'Connor and others (1994) need to be revised,
<br />The peak discharges of many of the prehistoric floods
<br />associated with these paleoflood deposits were, in fact,
<br />comparable to the peak discharges of floods during the
<br />early part of the 20th century. This observation leads to a
<br />minimum reduction of a factor of two in the return periods
<br />for these floods estimated by O'Connor and others (1994).
<br />Analyses of the 1921-2000 continuous record of
<br />instantaneous discharge provide insight into the pre-dam
<br />natural variability in the discharge of the Colorado River,
<br />and the hydrologic changes imposed on the Colorado
<br />River in Grand Canyon National Park by the construction
<br />and operation of Glen Canyon Dam. The continuous
<br />record of instantaneous discharge can be either requested
<br />from the USGS Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research
<br />Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, or obtained electronically at
<br />http://www,gcmrc,gov.
<br />Prior to the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in March
<br />1963, the discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry
<br />varied substantially over decadal time scales, The median
<br />discharge during the driest decade, the 1930s (6,720 ft3/s),
<br />differed from the median discharge during the wettest
<br />decade, the 1920s (10,700 ft3/s), by a factor of 1.6, The
<br />median discharge for the entire pre-dam period from
<br />May 8, 1921, through March 12, 1963, was 7,980 ft3/s.
<br />Although large floods were common in the pre-dam river,
<br />discharges exceeded 18,500 ft3/s only about 25 percent of
<br />the time, Topping and others (2000) showed that sand
<br />accumulated substantially in the pre-dam river in Marble
<br />and upper Grand Canyons only when the discharge was
<br />lower than about 9,000 ft3/s, and that sand eroded from
<br />Marble and upper Grand Canyons when the discharge
<br />was higher than about 16,000 ft3/s, The pre-dam decadal
<br />
<br />variation in discharge therefore had major implications for
<br />sand storage in Marble and upper Grand Canyons; the
<br />1920s were likely the pre-dam decade most dominated by
<br />erosion of sand from this reach, and the 1930s were likely
<br />the pre-dam decade most dominated by accumulation of
<br />sand in this reach,
<br />During the pre-dam era, the discharge of the river
<br />was fairly steady over sub-daily time scales, with a
<br />median daily rauge in discharge of only 542 ft3/s.
<br />Therefore, daily mean discharges provide a reasonable
<br />characterization of the hydrology of the pre-dam river.
<br />An exception is the summer thunderstorm season, when
<br />the daily range in discharge was observed to exceed
<br />30,000 ft3/s, but these extreme daily ranges occurred on
<br />average only dUling I day in every 3 years. Daily ranges
<br />in discharge were larger than 10,000 ft3/s only during
<br />I percent of all pre-dam days. The median daily range
<br />in discharge was greatest during the June part of the
<br />snowmelt flood (3,230 ft3/s). The decadal daily range in
<br />discharge was somewhat correlated with the decadal
<br />discharge. As in the case of discharge, the median daily
<br />range in discharge during the dtiest decade, the 19305
<br />(516 ft3/s), differed from the median discharge during the
<br />wettest decade, the 1920s (808 ft3/s), by a factor of 1.6.
<br />The operation of Glen Canyon Dam has removed
<br />the seasonality from discharge and from the daily range
<br />in discharge. Dam operations have removed flood flows
<br />and base flows, and dam operations for hydroelectric
<br />power generation have introduced wide-ranging daily
<br />fluctuations in discharge that are relatively consistent
<br />throughout the year, The changes that dam operations
<br />have imposed on the hydrology of the Colorado River at
<br />Lees Ferry exceed anything in the quasi-natural pre-dam
<br />period of record.
<br />As for the pre-dam tiver, discharge and the daily
<br />range in discharge have varied substantially over decadal
<br />time scales in the post -dam river as dam operations
<br />have evolved in response to the filling of Lake Powell
<br />reservoir and to growing concern about the effects of dam
<br />operations on the downstream Colorado River ecosystem.
<br />From the 1960s to the 1990s, the median discharge of the
<br />Colorado River at Lees Ferry increased from 9.490 ft3/s
<br />to 13,500 ft3/s. During the wettest post-dam decade, the
<br />1980s, the median discharge of the Colorado River at
<br />Lees Ferry was 15,900 ft3/s, only slightly higher than
<br />that during the 1990s. During the four post-dam
<br />decades, discharges under which sand can accumulate
<br />in Marble and upper Grand Canyons have progressively
<br />disappeared. During the 1960s, discharge was greater than
<br />9,000 ft3/s 52,7 percent of the time; during the 1970s,
<br />
<br />02223
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<br />Conclusions 57
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