WSP00781

• File Number: 8220.200.05.J
• Description: Hoover Dam/Lake Mead/Boulder Canyon Project
• Basin: Colorado Mainstem
• Date: 4/1/1987
• Title: Report to the Colorado River Forecasting Service Technical Committee on Estimation of the Reasonable Maximum Runoff Forecast for Lake Mead
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Report/Study

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section

Subiect

1.
1.1.

Introduction
Reasonable Maximum Forecast Explanation and
Reassessment
Colorado River Forecast Service Special Subcomittee

1. 2.

2.
2.1.
2.1.1.
2.1. 2.
2.1.3.

Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations
Findings and Conclusions '
Forecast Accuracy and Climate Variability
1983 Forecast Error Return Period
Relationship Between the Forecast Uncertainty and the
Magnitude of the Forecast
Recommendations
Method to Determine Lake Powell Uncertainty Term
Method to Determine Lake Mead Uncertainty Term
Computed Uncertainty Terms for Lake Powell and
Lake Mead Based Upon Recommended Methods
Data Base
Timely Reassessment of Uncertainty Terms

2.2.
2.2.1.
2.2.2.
2.2.3.

2,2.4.
2.2.5

3.
3.1.
3,2.
3.3.
3.4.
3.5.
3.6.
3.7.
3.8.
3.9.
3.10.
3.11.

Subcommittee Proceedings
January 24, 1984 Subcommittee Established
February 7, 1984 Subcommittee Meeting
March 13, 1984 Subcommittee Meeting
March 19, 1984 CRFS Technical Committee Meeting
September 18, 1984 CRFS Technical Committee Meeting
November 7, 1984 Subcommittee Meeting
October 24, 1985 CRFS Technical Committee Meeting
December 19, 1985 Subcommittee Meeting
March 10, 1986 Subcommittee Meeting
December 4, 1986 CRFS Technical Committee Meeting
January 13, 1987 Subcommittee Meeting