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<br />or "lower quartile," in availability. In simple terms, <br />this means that at least 75 percent of the time Western <br />expects to have sufficient (or greater) hydroelectric <br />capability to meet its long-term and short-term capacity <br />commitments. <br /> <br />It is important to note that the basis for Western's 10ng- <br />term contract commitments has been near-adverse or minimal <br />risk. For the Post-1989 period (WY 1990 and beyond), the <br />basis for long-term marketing has been assumed at the <br />10 percent risk level. <br /> <br />The first step in determining capacity projections is to <br />extract from the CRSM all monthly projections for the <br />2 peak load months for each season. (Generally, this is <br />December and January for the 6-month winter season, and <br />July and August for the 6-month summer season.) Of these <br />2 months for each season, the monthly projection for the <br />lower peak load month is chosen to represent seasonal <br />capacity values. Next, the seasonal CRSM capacity values <br />are sUbjected to a probability program which determines <br />the lower quartile projections. Finally, the lower <br />quartile values are smoothed with the 5-year moving <br />average program. The smoothed, lower quartile capacity <br />projections are then assumed available for future years in <br />the PRS. Figures 2 and 3, Appendix G, show unsmoothed <br />lower quartile capacity projections and smoothed lower <br />quartile capacity projections for the winter and summer <br />seasons. <br /> <br />The CRSM is a relatively new computer program, replacing the <br />earlier CRSP model, used for the FY 1981 CRSP PRS, and <br />utilizing improved historical data and information-management <br />technology. Statistical evaluations show the new program to be <br />more accurate in its projections. <br /> <br />2. Co11bran and RGP Power Production Estimates. The water condi- <br />tions on these rivers are assessed by experienced operations <br />personnel, based on current reservoir levels for the first <br />5 future years, and historical averages are used thereafter. <br /> <br />B. Revenues. Revenues are derived from the resources available for <br />sale and historically have come from a number of sources. <br /> <br />1. Project Use. Project use power was defined through FY 1985 as <br />sales at the CRSP storage unit dams for visitor centers and <br />Government camps. Since FY 1985, project use power has been <br />defined as that power which is reserved for project pumping <br />requirements and other project uses by the Integrated Projects <br />and the CRSP participating projects. Project use capacity and <br />energy are sold at Integrated Projects firm power rates. <br /> <br />2. Firm Power. By definition, firm power is a delivery obligation <br />of the Integrated Projects. It must be furnished to the <br /> <br />9 <br />