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<br />. <br /> <br />central to Colorado River controversy for seven decades. When California was <br />pressing for the construction of Boulder Dam in the 1920's, other Basin states were <br />concerned that its rapid development would gain it the lion's share of the river under <br />prior appropriation principles, to their disadvantage. This fear prompted the <br />development of the Colorado River Compact in 1922, and the provision in the 1928 <br />Boulder Canyon Project Act requiring California to enact a law limiting its Colorado <br />River contractors to normal year use of 4.4 million acre-feet (mat). <br /> <br />California's uses are expected to go above 5.2 mafthis year, exceeding by <br />some 800,000 acre-feet its basic entitlement of 4.4 mat: In contrast to the past, <br />however, the unused Lower Basin apportionment upon which California has relied <br />is shrinking. For the first time ever, this year, demand for water in the Lower Basin <br />exceeded the Basin's basic apportionment of 7.5 mat: Demand is expected to exceed <br />8 million acre-feet this coming year. Consumption in each of the three lower <br />division states has been growing, and we can anticipate that with present patterns of <br />use, demand will continue regularly to exceed 7.5 mat: <br /> <br />Fortunately, in the last few years water has been abundant. We have <br />approximately 50 maf in storage on the Colorado River system, some 83% of <br />system capacity. Analysis shows a very low risk of future shortage. For thes'e <br />reasons, we declared a SUrplus condition that allowed all Lower Basin water .' <br />demand to' be met in calendar year 1996. We anticipate a similar <br />decision for 1997. However, conditions of abundance will not always prevail, and <br />users in the Lower Basin cannot depend on SUrplUses alway's being available. <br /> <br />The six Basin states other than California have proposed discussions to <br />develop multiple year SUrplus and shortage criteria thatwill for an interim period <br />meet at least part of the demand in the Lower Basin. This is a significant proposal, <br />but it is based on California's ability to commit to an enforceable program to reduce <br />its reliance on SUrplus water, without creating undue risk to other entitlement <br />holders. <br /> <br />A crucial question is how California is preparing itself for times of greater <br />stringency. Its uses in excess of 4.4 maf are occurring both in the agricultural and in <br />the urban sectors. The agricultural agencies have an entitlement of3.85 maf, but <br />called for more than 4 mafthis year. There is <br /> <br />3 <br />