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(J IJ 21 ~) j . . At the February Board meeting I reported that due to the large amount of precipitation during December and the early part of January in the Upper Basin, Reclamation had begun to make high flow releases from Hoover Dam in order to evacuate approximately 600,000 af of water in anticipation of the spring runoff, and that Lake Mead's surface elevation was expected to rise to elevation 1216. Based on the latest News Release (Included in the Board folder) from Reclamation, Lake Mead, is now expected to rise only to elevation 1200 by the end of April, then recede to elevation 1196 by the end of June. Depending on future runoff forecasts, Lake Mead's water surface could rise to elevation 1205 by February 1998. Concerning the 1998 Annual Operating Plan for the Colorado River System Reservoirs (1998 AOP), I have included in the Board folder a copy of Reclamation's proposed schedule for approving the 1998 AOP. A draft plan should be available by June 2nd with two subsequent consultation meetings scheduled for June 20th and July 29, 1997. On April 11 th the Colorado River Management Work Group met to discuss two topics: I) the initial draft of the 1998 AOP and 2) proposed surplus and shortage guidelines for determination of the delivery ofwater from Lake Mead. During the meeting the initial draft of the 1998 AOP was distributed by Reclamation; comments on this initial draft are to be sent to Reclamation by May 2, 1997. Considering this year's anticipated runoff, the present storage ofwater in the System reservoirs, and the most probable near-term water supply conditions in the Basin, Reclamation is proposing that the surplus criterion govern the delivery of water from Lake Mead to the mainstream water users in the Lower Division states in accordance with Article ID(3)(b) of the Long-Range Operating Criteria and Article II(B)(2) of the Decree in Arizona v. California. and that a surplus be declared for the delivery of water to Mexico in accordance with Article 15 of the 1944 Mexican Water Treaty and Minute No. 242 of the International Boundary and Water Commission, allowing Mexico to schedule the delivery of 1.7 mar of water during calendar year 1998. In addition, Reclamation is proposing that any Lower Division state would be allowed to utilize water apportioned to, but unused by another Lower Division state, in accordance with Article 1I(B)(6) of the Decree in Arizona v. California. For releases from Glen Canyon Dam, the storage equalization and spill avoidance criteria will govern the operation under the most probable inflow scenario in 1998. , Regarding development of surplus and shortage guidelines at the Board's January meeting, I reported that Reclamation had initiated the process to develop guidelines for making future surplus determinations and that Reclamation had begun that process by working with the Colorado River Management Work Group. Included in the Board folder is a summary of the thirteen stakeholders' comments related to Colorado River reservoir operations. During the April 11th Colorado River Management Work Group meeting, these objectives were separated into five categories (surplus strategies, shortage strategies, parameters to evaluate operating strategies, items to be considered in another forum, and other). Reclamation will run several surplus strategies and prepare a matrix of the impacts associated with each scenario. The results from these computer runs will be discussed during a meeting uled for June 3 The surplus strategies being studied include: flood control, 70 percent avoidance of a spIll upon both the 70 percentile volwne of runoff and the volwne of vacant space required to provide a 70 percent avoidance of a flood control release), three-, five-, eight-, and ten-year look abead for avoiding a spill, 80 percent avoidance of a shortage, and the 3