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<br />o <br />c~ <br />~ This study is a part of a comprehensive national-interregional <br />C) framework study, commonly referred to as a Type I Study, made on an in- <br />.. teragency basis under the auspices of the.Water Resources Council. This <br />r~ appendi~ to the Main Renort provides economic data and analyses pertain- <br />ing to the Region's economy in the base period and for the projection <br />time fr$me for use in formulating and appraising framework plans re <br />water and related land requirements, and their effect upon people. The <br />Region and subregions used in this appendix were delineated on an eco- <br />nomic or political subdivision basis and are synonymous with the Water <br />Resources Planning Areas for which primary or structural baseline pro- <br />jections: were provided by the Water Resources Council. The base period <br />is referred to as 1965 and, to the extent feasible, represents a normal- <br />ized situation. The projection time frame extends 55 years into the <br />future with three, target years, 1980, 2000, and 2020. <br /> <br />SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS <br /> <br />Two sets of projections are portrayed and analYzed in this appen- <br />dix, and the basis is provided whereby other alternative projections can <br />be readily ,developed to broaden the scope of the analyses and reduce Un- <br />certainty in water resource planning. The baseline or OBE-ERS projec- <br />tions are first portrayed and analyzed relative to the base period and <br />historical trends. The modified OBE-ERS projections are then presented <br />and related to the.OBE-ERS projections. The basis for developing other <br />a1ternat~ve projections to facilitate analyses of alternative levels <br />and uses ;of water is presented in the concluding chapter. Analysis of <br />price impacts, alternative levels of projected crop yields, and alter- <br />native projections of population and employment released by the Water <br />Resources Council in June 1969, and their effect on the economy were <br />analyzed. <br /> <br />! <br />i <br />I <br />i <br />I <br />j <br /> <br />The baseline projections are referred to as OBE-ERS projections <br />since they were prepared for the Water Resources Council by the Office <br />of Business Economics, U. S. Department of Commerce, and the Economic <br />Research Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture. They are a part of <br />a consistent set of national-interregional projections which equated <br />national demand with supply and prOVided a first approach to consistent <br />regional projections based upon historical trends in interregional <br />production relationships. The projections provided for the Region and! <br />or subregions were disaggregated by the Economics Work Group and a com- <br />plete set of consistent projections developed for each of the three <br />subregions--the Lower Main Stem, Little Colorado, and Gila. A summary <br />of the OBE-ERS projections compared with the base year 1965 is portrayed <br />in table 1.1. <br /> <br />The Lower Colorado Region is one of the fastest growing areas of <br />the United States and this relationship is projected to continue. The <br />OBE-ERS projections for the nation as a whole are based upon an assumed <br />population growth rate of 1.3 percent. This is substantially lower than <br />the OBE-ERS projected growth rate of 2.3 percent per annum for the Lower <br />Colorado Region. <br /> <br />i <br /> <br />