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<br />(:~ <br />~ 1~ <br />r~ <br />t~ <br />~j <br />~ a 10-year average discharge equal to the target discharge ranges from <br /> <br />0.0+% in one simulation to 14.5% in another. Failure to meet the <br /> <br />Compact required 10-year average discharge of 7.5 MAF/yr ranges from <br /> <br />0.0+ to 4.7%. <br /> <br />Discharges from Lake Mead for this case are seen to remain <br /> <br />greater than or equal to the 8.25 MAF/yr target in all four simulations <br /> <br />(Figure 6.8(b)). The probability of eXcess deliveries or spills from <br /> <br />Mead varies considerably. The case with SPM = 27 exhibits the same <br />variability in response (Figure 6.9(a,b)). <br /> <br />The extremes of the discharge probability distributions are ex- <br /> <br />pected to converge toward stable values as the number of years of <br /> <br />simulations is increased, subject to the inherent limitation of the <br /> <br />finite data base. The output from ten, independent simulations was <br /> <br />used to examine the characteristics of this convergence. <br /> <br />Data from each successive simulation is used to form the accumu- <br /> <br />1ated probability that annual reservoir discharge was less than a given <br /> <br />amount, D. The same statistics were generated for the 10-year average <br /> <br />discharges of D = 8.23 and 7.5 MAF/yr. The accumulated probability that <br /> <br />discharge was less than or equal to D is plotted as the number of simu- <br /> <br />lations included rises from one to ten. <br /> <br />From the figure it is difficult to determine whether the proba- <br /> <br />bility of failing to maintain a 10-year average discharge of 8.23 MAF <br /> <br />(denoted by circles in the figure) continues to rise or has converged to <br /> <br />a value near 0.07 (7% of years observed). The probability of failing to <br /> <br />maintain a 10-year average discharge of 7.5 MAF/yr is low, but continues <br /> <br />to vary between 0.0+ and 0.01 as more observations are included. <br />