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<br />O.l~ "'3') <br />l,lu . <br /> <br />define an element for the introduction of any changes from the <br />present conditions. This eliminated the need to recompute bound- <br />ary inputs for each run. <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />It is noted that the modified historical inputs represent but one <br />hydrologic sequence. Stochastically generated inputs would allow <br />the introduction of measures of confidence (see interpretation of <br />results below). <br /> <br />(2) Initial salinity conditions - The effect of the initial <br />reservoir salinity persists for a portion of the run. Conse- <br />quently, statistics for the entire run reflect the initial con- <br />di tions. When the ir.lposed changes deviate radically from those <br />for the base condition, a definite trend of either increased or <br />decreased salinity results. To remove this trend and estimate <br />ultimate effects, each set of conditions was run twice. The <br />first run used the flow-weighted 1970 historic salinities (equal <br />to present modified data) for each reservoir, as shown in the <br />next subsection. The second run employed the flow-weighted con- <br />centrations for the last year of the first run. This topic is <br />more fully discussed in the section "Transient Effect of Initial <br />Salini ty." <br /> <br />I- <br />i' <br /> <br />" <br />L <br /> <br />L <br /> <br />(3) Initial reservoir contents - The initial reservoir volumes <br />are shown in the following tabulation. Volumes for Lake Powell <br />and Lake Head correspond to the historic end-of-month contents' <br />for December 1970. For Lakes Hohave and Havasu the initial con- <br />tents were chosen as the mean monthly historical content of the <br />1967-1970 period. These values were considered as representative <br />initial contents that are likely to exist for all runs. <br /> <br />[, <br />~ <br /> <br />I- <br /> <br />Reservoir <br /> <br />Initial salinity <br />(ppm) <br /> <br />625 <br />743 <br />758 <br />758 <br /> <br />Initial content <br />(1,000 acre-feet) <br /> <br />14,127 <br />19,189 <br />1,582 <br />568 <br /> <br />Lake Powe 11 <br />Lake ~Iead <br />Lake ~Iohave <br />Lake Havasu <br /> <br />(4) Storage changes and depletions - Comparison of results based <br />on a run in which reservoirs filled and spilled with those in <br />which reservoirs were dralffi down to dead storage levels could be <br />very misleading. Consequently, depletions were adjusted to prevent <br />excessive changes in storage for the entire system (i.e., all four <br />reservoirs) during a given run. This was accomplished by adjusting <br />flows at Imperial Dam and those for the Central Arizona Project <br />when it was included in the runs. The lower limit at Imperial was <br />never allowed to go belOl< 5.7 million acre-feet annually, a figure <br /> <br />to <br /> <br />20 <br />