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<br />OOClH? <br /> <br />(2) orographic storms that produce localized mountain-induced precipitation. <br />Not all parts of these storms are seedable. However, new developments in <br />instrumentation and measurement techniques have advanced our ability to <br />determine which parts are seedable. It is no longer necessary to rely on <br />indirect indices of physical conditions, an approach that has proven to be <br />inaccurate and inefficient. Advances in onsite processing, display, and <br />analyses of data provide a basis for the development of opportunity recogni- <br />tion and reaction systems. These new capabilities make it possible to <br />reinforce the evaluation by documenting the chain of physical events that <br />lead to snowfall. This increases the confidence that cloud seeding is <br />responsible for increased snowfall. <br /> <br />The primary evaluation will concentrate on quantifying precipitation increases <br />in the demonstration sites. Precipitation-runoff relationships and watershed <br />models will be used to express these precipitation increases in terms of <br />streamflow. Because the anticipated effects of seeding are smaller than the <br />year-to-year variations in natural snowfall, carefully applied statistical <br />techniques are required to detect the seeding-induced changes. Although a <br />goal of the demonstration program is to provide as much water as possible, a <br />randomly selected portion of the seedable events will be left unseeded to <br />facilitate an unbiased, timely evaluation of seeding effects. The randomiza- <br />tion procedures and the treatment units will be chosen to balance the <br />requirement for maximum water production against the need to achieve confir- <br />mation of the technology as soon as possible. Although the primary statisti- <br />cal analysis will use hourly precipitation data, a secondary analysis will <br />consider seasonal streamflow from treated and untreated subbasins. In view <br />of the much smaller sample size, such a streamflow analysis is not expected <br />to be convincing by itself. However, it is expected that the streamflow <br />analysis and the rigorous statistical precipitation analysis will reinforce <br />one another. <br /> <br />Another important feature of the demonstration program is the use and refine- <br />ment of suspension criteria. Seeding will not take place when weather <br />conditions that could be detrimental to public safety or could cause property <br />or environmental damage are expected. Seeding will be suspended when severe <br />avalanche danger exists and when the seasonal snowpack is much above the <br />long-term average. In addition, seeding and other activities will be sus- <br />pended under any special or unusual circumstances that are considered <br />hazardous. <br /> <br />Transferability studies will focus on collection and analysis of those data <br />required to permit the design and implementation of a well-founded cloud <br />seeding program throughout the Colorado River Basin. Initial efforts will <br />center on adapting existing technology to the two demonstration subbasins. <br />The preferred area for this portion of the study is the Grand Mesa. Follow- <br />ing this, major emphasis will shift to studies in the other major water- <br />producing subbasins. <br /> <br />Two principal areas of investigation will be pursued to identify the most <br />cost-effective implementation procedures for each of the subbasins: <br />(1) transport and diffusion of seeding agents, and (2) seeding opportunity <br />recognition and response studies. <br /> <br />3 <br />