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<br />001454 <br /> <br />II FORCST II <br /> <br />3.15 FORCSTn <br /> <br />This card provides the coefficients and constants of the mul- <br />tiple regression equations which develop the error term in <br />the April to July runoff forecasts that predict inflow to <br />Lake Powell. <br /> <br />3.15.1 Preparation <br /> <br />The dependent variable in the multiple regression equation is <br />the error term for the current forecast month. The indepen- <br />dent variables are the actual April through July runoff and <br />the error term for the previous forecast month. <br /> <br />The equation has the following form: <br /> <br />ERROR = (C1 x SPRO) + (C2 x LERROR) - C3 + (STDERR x RERR) <br />where: <br /> <br />ERROR = error term for the current month of forecast <br /> <br />SPRO = actual April-July runoff <br /> <br />LERROR = error term for the previous month of forecast <br /> <br />STDERR = standard error of estimate <br /> <br />RERR = random normal number <br /> <br />C1, C2 = coefficients <br /> <br />C3 = constant term <br /> <br />In each of the six regression equations (for the months <br />January through June), the standard error of estimate, coef- <br />ficients, and constant term are entered on the cards. <br /> <br />These data are developed by the CRSS Technical Management <br />Team. <br /> <br />3.15.2 Quantity <br /> <br />six cards (FORCST1 through FORCST6) are prepared, one for <br />each month from January through June. <br /> <br />33 <br />