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<br />000012 <br /> <br />The Simulation Model. <br /> <br />The simulation model estimates snow removal costs using information <br />about wages, machines and removal procedures gathered by interviewing <br />road maintenance foremen in each county and daily snow aIOOunts recorded <br />at National Weather Service cooperative observer sites. Snowfall records <br />from past winters were used so costs could be estimated for winters of <br />low, average and high snowfall. The model also estimates costs of mop-up <br />(pushing back banks, clearing drifts and sanding slick spots on days <br />following storms) and overtime. <br /> <br />Labor costs are computed only for the time employees spend removing <br />snow. Labor of mechanics is included in the "rental rate" applied to <br />each machine. The labor of office staff is excluded because it is <br />difficult to tie their duties to daily snowfall. Costs of supplies are <br />excluded, because they are difficult to determine and because initial <br />estimates indicate that they are insignificant conpared to costs of labor <br />and machines. Costs of operating, maintaining and repairing equipnent <br />were estimated by using hourly "rental rates" calculated by the Colorado <br />Department of Highways. <br /> <br />Foremen reported that the effort required to remove given aIOOuntS <br />of snow depends on characteristics of storms such as wind, density of <br />snow, time of day and duration. we developed methods to account for time <br />of day and duration; wind and density of snow were accounted for by <br />aSking foremen to "abstract away" the extreme and consider typical <br />conditions. <br /> <br />Simulated Augmentation of snow Amounts. <br /> <br />The simulation model can estimate snow removal costs when recorded <br />snowfall aIOOunts are increased to simulate effects of seeding. In this <br />study, snow aIOOunts in a random sanple of one-third of the storms in the <br />winters examined are increased 25 percent. 'l\oIenty-five percent was <br />chosen because Colorado State university scientists have indicated that <br />these increases in snowfall are possible if storms are seeded carefully <br />and knowledgeably. Snow aIOOunts were augmented in only one-third of the <br />storms because meteorological conditions favorable to seeding are thought <br />to exist in about one-third of the winter storms in the Colorado <br />mountains. This augmentation scheme resulted in increases in seasonal <br />snowfall which ranged from 4.5 to 9.7 percent. <br /> <br />vii <br />