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<br />on488 <br /> <br />current retail firm power pri'..es." It is stated that this <br />is "an over-estimate of the p ': esent wholesale value of project <br />generated power, and probably an understatement of future <br />values, due to the steeply ri;ing trend of energy costs." <br />There appears to be a discrep,-'.ncy in pricing theory as applied <br />to the value of hydroelectric production versus the value of <br />agriculture, municipal and industrial water supplies. It would <br />appear that the authors have .tried to anticipate an increase <br />in the value of hydroelectric power production but not in the <br />value of municipal, agricultural and industrial water supplies. <br />The effect of this could be to place a greater value on <br />hydroelectric projects than those projeots which produce <br />municipal, agricultural and industrial water supplies. <br /> <br />Project Investment or Construction Costs. We ooncur with <br />the statement regarding the cost estimates presented in this <br />report: "Such adjustments, while unavoidable, are questionable <br />reliability when spanning more than a few years." We would <br />hope that later on in the report a description of each project <br />is complete enough to insure that the present project concept <br />and the project concept on which the economic evaluation is <br />based are the same. Some changes in concept have occurred <br />on these projects over the years. <br /> <br />The methodology used by the authors to evaluate economic <br />benefits should be subject to close scrutiny by the Advisory <br />Committee. We believe that the economic benefit evaluation <br />is oversimplified and that further research should be done <br />to consider alternatives to this method. There is particular <br />concern about the problem of overstating or understating the <br />value of either irrigation, municipal or industrial water <br />supplies or the value of hydroelectric power, since we are <br />comparing projects which offer in some cases only irrigation <br />water and no hydroelectric power, or perhaps only municipal <br />and industrial water supplies with hydroelectric power, and <br />no irrigation water. Comparison of these projects would be <br />invalid if the economic benefit analysis is not accurate <br />within each sector for benefits and relatively among sectors. <br />In addition, some assurance is needed regarding the project <br />investment or construction costs, and just how valid these <br />costs are, given the fact that they have been adjusted to 1980 <br />price levels, in some cases over a period of 20 years or more. <br />The degree of uncertainty associated with these price <br />adjustments should be made known to the project Advisory <br />Committee by comparing some upward adjustments with some <br />revised recent cost estimates. <br /> <br />On Page 55 it is stated, "net economic benefits are composed <br />of market value outputs,..." The methods used do not appear <br />to reflect market value outputs, but only the net income or <br />net return resulting from market value outputs. The statement <br /> <br />4 <br />