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<br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />002114 <br /> <br />Hydrosphere's Colorado River Model <br /> <br />December 29, 1993 <br />Page 21 <br /> <br />combined contents in Lakes Powell and Mead plus a 70% probability inflow exceed a specified <br />Powell/Mead target. The Powell/Mead target considers the capacities of the two reservoirs <br />and the flood control space required in September. The 70% probability level is an assurance <br />level used in CRSM. Other probability levels are also available in Hydrosphere's Colorado <br />River Model. <br /> <br />If a surplus is predicted, it is distributed evenly between CAP and MWD up to their <br />capacities. If 200 kaf remain after MWD and CAP receive their allocations, Mexico is given <br />an additional 200 kaf. <br /> <br />Surplus allocations are met by releases from Lake Mead. Surplus releases from Lake <br />Powell are made if the current contents of Lake Powell plus the average inflow exceeds a <br />target. The Powell target considers the equalization level and current contents in Flaming <br />Gorge, Blue Mesa and Navaho reservoirs. Higher contents in those reservoirs result in a <br />lower Powell target, which results in higher surplus releases. <br /> <br />Hydrosphere Resource Consultants 1002 Walnut Suite 200 Boulder, Colorado 80302 <br />