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<br />OOJ331 <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br />INTRODUCTION <br /> <br />This study plan is with reference to the Colorado portion of a study <br />of the region overlying the Ogallala Aquifer in parts of the six states <br />of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The <br />overall regional study plan is detailed in a document prepared by the <br />High Plains Associates (the "General Contractor"); 'Interim Report:' Six <br />State High Plains-Ogallala 'Aquifer Area 'Study dated January 15,1979. <br />This section describes the workplan for state element A-l and the eco- <br />nomic input-output modeling in state element A-3 (elements A-3.10 to <br />A-3.16, inclusive), This section is divided into two subsections. The <br />first subsection describes the workplan for elements A-l.l to A-l.lO; <br />the second subsection describes the workplan for elements A-l.ll to <br />A-l.12, and A-3.l0 to A-3.l6. <br /> <br />The Ogallala aquifer formation underlies portions of counties in eastern <br />Colorado. A very rough preliminary estimate suggests approximately one- <br />half million acres are under irrigation from this groundwater source. <br />Natural recharge is negligible, so that in the absence of large-scale <br />importation of water from other sources, the irrigated portions of the <br />region face an eventual return to non-irrigated production. <br /> <br />The priucipal crop in the study region is corn, accounting for some <br />75 percent of irrigated acreage. Hay accounts for another ten percent, <br />aud the balance is about evenly divided between wheat, dry beans and- <br />sugar beets. More than 2 milliou acres of non-irrigated cropland is <br />harvested in this eleven-county area each year. Nearly 90 percent of <br />this dry cropland produces winter wheat, while the balance is in hay or <br />feed grains (sorghum, barley, corn). Some livestock operations are <br />present, mainly cattle-feeding operations, which convert the feed grain <br />and forage production into finished meat animals. <br /> <br />The counties in Colorado to be considered in this study are identified <br />on the map on the following page. The shaded areas indicate the eleven- <br />couuty region lying over the Ogallala formation in Colorado. Farm-level <br />research will focus on this region. The map also displays the three <br />planning and management regions which contain the eleven-county Ogallala <br />area. The second subsection of this portion of the Colorado workplan <br />outlines the steps for preparing an economic input-output model for each <br />,of these three planning and management regions, plus a model for the <br />Ogallala area itself. <br /> <br />The purpose of Element A-I is to develop projection of important variables <br />describing agricultural production and agri-business activities for the <br />Colorado portion of the Ogallala region for a four-decade period (1980- <br />2020) for each of several specified water supply, energy and public policy <br />scenarios. The important variables to be projected include production <br />and value of selected crops and livestock enterprises; quantity and value <br />of significant inputs, including land, water, labor, machinery, fertilizer, <br />pesticides, etc. Projections are to be'made for each of a number of alter- <br />native assumptions regarding public policy with respect to the region's <br />water and energy supplies. Direct impact projections are to utilize <br />linear programming models. <br /> <br />" <br />