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<br />003183 <br /> <br />Although the program will be evaluated on the basis of the response of precipitation to seeding, <br />streamflow responses to enhanced snowfall will be quantified by an existing physically based <br />numerical model of hydrologic processes. This watershed model will be adapted to the two main <br />environmental areas and to several other watersheds selected to represent hydrologic <br />conditions throughout the Basin. The model will provide the quantity and timing of additional <br />streamflow that can be expected from snowpack enhancement. The results of the watershed <br />modeling can be used in benefit-cost analyses of follow-on operational seeding projects. This <br />document provides preliminary estimates of streamflow responses to snowpack enhancement, <br />based on linear regression techniques. These estimates suggest that a 10 pct increase in <br />seasonal snowfall will produce at least a 10 pct enhancement in spring and summer streamflow <br />in most mountain drainages. <br /> <br />Management and operation of the CREST program will be facilitated by stationing key field <br />personnel near each of the experimental areas for the duration of the program. In addition, a <br />group of scientists and support personnel will be located at one of the experimental area field <br />headquarters to maximize communication and coordination among field personnel and <br />analysts. During Phase I the analysis group will work full-time on analyzing the direct <br />detection cloud seeding experiments and performing numerical model simulations. They will <br />also design the statistical experiments, and, during Phase II, perform analyses to test the <br />design and proper conduct of the experiments. However, analysts will not be encumbered with <br />the pressures of daily field operations, so they can focus on analysis and design. Too often in <br />past experiments, analysis has been postponed until all field needs were met. This approach <br />resulted in lack of important feedback which could have improved the experiments. <br /> <br />No seeding will be done until environmental compliance activities are finalized. Thereafter, <br />environmental monitoring will be a part of the CREST to address any unresolved issues and <br />verif'y predicted environmental responses. <br /> <br />The CREST program is expected to cost $70 million (1993 dollars) and take 8 yr to complete. <br />The first year will be devoted to environmental compliance activities and procurement of project <br />equipment and field support and analysis contracts. The Bureau of Reclamation, as lead <br />agency, will spend about 25 pct of funds on program management, scientific oversight, and <br />procurement of all major equipment. The remainder of the funding will be expended on <br />contracts with the private sector, universities, and State, local, and other Federal agencies. <br /> <br />xv <br />